Who Should Win Game 1 of the NBA Finals?

denver nuggets It is miami heat face off this Thursday (1), at 9:30 pm (Brasília time), at the Ball Arena, in Denver. And both teams arrive at completely different times, with trajectories not at all similar, until then. While the team Nikola Jokic and company amassed a conference-leading 53 regular season wins and swept the Lakers in the Western Finals, Jimmy Butler and the Heat ranked 8th in the East and had a difficult life in the conference finals against the Boston Celtics, having to decide in game 7, away from home, after opening a 3-0 and losing 3 consecutive.

The Heat are only the second team in NBA history to advance to the Finals after placing 8th, joining the 1998 Knicks. But would that be enough to bring the team its first title since 2006? One of the factors that should decide this is tiredness.

The last game of the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs was on May 22, over a week ago, when the team beat the Los Angeles Lakers for the 4th consecutive time, sweeping LeBron James’ team out of the Playoffs. The Miami Heat played two days ago, on the 29th of the same month, after playing seven close matches against the Boston Celtics, which causes natural wear and tear for athletes looking to reach 100% in the finals.

The command of the court, with two tremendously passionate fans, can be a differential in this series. And the Denver Nuggets have home advantage in their first two games, Games 3 and 4 in Miami. And at Ball Arena, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are the main hopes to overcome Miami’s defense, which has been evolving consistently in the playoffs, but still has several flaws that were exposed in the regular season.

Still, the history does not help the Miami team against the then favorite Denver Nuggets. In the regular season, the Heat lost both matches to their current opponent. Both games were narrowly decided. Being, in December 2022, a victory for Denver by 124 to 119 and, in February 2023, the Nuggets led by 112 to 108.

In the first game, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was the name of the Nuggets, scoring 20 points, while Nikola Jokic scored a triple-double of 19 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists. In the second match, the Serbian player was even more effective: 27 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists. That, without Jamal Murray, who was injured (knee) and unable to play. On the other hand, Jimmy Butler was the most effective of the Miami Heat, averaging 20.5 points, 8.5 assists and eight rebounds, with Bam Adebayo presenting a good average, too: 20.5 points and 4.5 rebounds. Battle of numbers that, in the end, no matter how close it is, continues to reaffirm favoritism for the Denver team, since Jamal Murray was not featured in these matches, but became Jokic’s main ally in the Playoffs, with impressive performances and a sharp aim for balls of 3, with 39% accuracy.

Two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic reaches the Finals averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game. And in these playoffs, the Miami Heat will be the 4th team to try to stop the Serb. And, like the Lakers, the Miami team has a lighter and slightly smaller roster, which brings a certain disadvantage in a decision. Another challenge for coach Erik Spoelstra.

Still, the main bookmakers in the United States have the Denver Nuggets as favorites not only for Game 1, which takes place at the Ball Arena, in Denver. But for the series as a whole, still pointing to Nikola Jokic as the likely MVP of the finals. And that, in fact, puts the Miami Heat even more in the post of “dark horse” of the big decision of the NBA.

Check out the NBA Finals game schedule between Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets

GAME 1: 01/06, at 21:30 – In Denver
GAME 2: 06/04, at 9 pm – In Denver
GAME 3: 06/07, at 21:30 – In Miami
GAME 4: 09/06, at 21:30 – In Miami
GAME 5 (if needed): 6/12 at 9:30 pm – In Denver
GAME 6 (if needed): 6/15 at 9:30 pm – In Miami
GAME 7 (if required): 5/18 at 9pm – In Denver

*All games in Brasilia time