Shakhtar and Dnipro-1 can raise Ukraine in the UEFA ranking already on Thursday. This is very important before the reform of the European Cups

On Thursday, two Ukrainian clubs – Shakhtar and Dnipro-1 – will play the first round of the playoffs of the Europa League and the Conference League, respectively. And our country, after the Thursday matches between Donetsk and Dnipro, can rise by several positions in the UEFA coefficients table. These results will not affect the representation of Ukraine in the 2023/2024 season, but they can significantly improve the position of our country before the large-scale reform of all three European cup tournaments planned from the 2024/2025 season.

With the European Cup season 2023/2024, everything has long been clear. Ukraine, starting from 11th place (we hope that Russia’s suspension will last), has maintained a quota of five teams in three European cup tournaments. True, there is one important condition: now the champion of our country will not have a direct ticket to the group stage of the Champions League – he will have to start in the most prestigious club tournament in Europe from the playoff round of the champions path. The vice-champion will start his performance in the Champions League from the second round of qualification of the Path of the Leagues.

There will be one club from Ukraine in the Europa League – the third-placed team will start its journey from the qualifying playoff round. In the Conference League, Ukraine will be represented by two clubs: the fourth-place team in the UPL will start from the third qualifying round. The club that finished fifth – from the second.

The fate of Ukraine in the 2022/2023 season can be repeated by Serbia, whose champion, due to the removal of Russia, will receive a direct ticket to the group stage of the Champions League.

But with the 2024/2025 season, as they say, options are possible. Recall that the Champions League, the Europa League and the Conference League in a season will be played according to the Swiss system. For example, in the Champions League there will be 36, and not 32 as it is now, teams that will be in the conditionally “one group”, and each will play eight matches (four at home, four away) against eight different opponents. According to the results of the first round, the first eight teams will receive tickets to the 1/8 finals of the tournament, the clubs that finish from 9th to 24th places will play the playoff round. Teams that take places from 25th to 36th, stop the fight for the title.

When determining opponents, teams will be divided into four pots of nine teams according to the UEFA club rankings. Each team will play with two representatives from each pot, including their own. Four additional Champions League group berths will be given to the third team from the fifth UEFA ranked country, the best teams from the top two UEFA Champions League countries last season that failed to qualify for the Champions League at the end of the season, and one additional team from the Tournament Qualifying Champions Path.

So far, UEFA does not provide information on how quotas will be distributed among national associations. But, this is already clear, let’s just repeat: as now, the main role will be played by the UEFA rating for countries and clubs. This means that Ukraine needs to secure a good head start by climbing as high as possible in the UEFA coefficients table.

Already on the basis of the results of Thursday’s matches, Ukraine can rise two positions at once, beating Norway, which has one representative left, and the Czech Republic, which is simply watching the European Cups. Of course, on the condition that Shakhtar, who will play with Rennes, and Dnipro-1, who will meet with Cypriot AEK, score points.

The maximum that Ukraine can take in case of Donetsk and Dnipro victories is 0.8 points (four points for two victories divided by five starting clubs). In such scenarios, we bypass the Czech Republic and Norway, regardless of the result of Boude-Glimt, who will have to play with the Polish Lech in the Conference League.

With other results of the Ukrainians, options are possible. We only note that the three points scored by Shakhtar and Dnipro-1 also guarantee Ukraine a rise in the table, regardless of the Boude-Glimt match.

Going to the 13th position Switzerland, which also has one club left in European competition – Basel – Ukraine can bypass in a week. But this requires not only the almost maximum results of Shakhtar and Dnipro-1, but also the failures of Basel in the matches with Trabzonspor. Catching up with Turkey, which is 2.6 points ahead of Ukraine and retained four clubs, not to mention Serbia (3.375 points behind), is an unrealistic task.

As for the pursuers of Ukraine, even two victories in this round of their only remaining representative – Mittjylland – over Sporting in the Europa League will not be enough for Denmark, regardless of the results of Ukrainian clubs.