No Zina, no party: what awaits Man City without Alex and who awaits Zinchenko in the future

When Oleksandr Zinchenko last signed with Man City in 2019, experts estimated his transfer fee at 30 million euros. Now the 25-year-old wagon, who has won a dozen foreign medals and trophies, has regressed by 5 million.

There is some understatement in the career of one of the best Ukrainian football players – yes, Alex Zinchenko is a universal favorite, Guardiola praises him exclusively at press conferences, and if someone from Man City needs a godfather, many will call this charming Ukrainian boy to baptize their children.

But the moment inevitably comes when you sit down at Transfermarkt, you see that the curve of your transfer value is falling, and in the toughest season you have played less than half of the league matches – and even those are not in your optimal position. This summer, analysts give high chances that Zinchenko will finally say goodbye to Guardiola and Man City. Why and what’s next? The Sport Arena is being dismantled.

Manchester city (champion)

Zinchenko’s contract with Man City is valid for another two years, but there are several problems at once that call into question Sasha’s future as part of the English champion. Firstly, the lack of playing practice – in all tournaments 2021/22, Zina ran 28 matches, but on average no more than 60 minutes per game, and secondly, in the Premier League – only 15 games of them. Secondly, with all the adaptability, Alexander played mainly as a left back – he played only a couple of matches in the season as a central midfielder.

There is little hope that time will put Sasha into the starting lineup – he himself is no longer a young player, but in his prime. And potential competitors, both for the place of the left full-back and the center-half, are full of energy and work out long-term contracts. Judge for yourself: Cancelo has a contract until 2027, Walker until 2024, even the rebellious Mendy until 2023. Rodri, Foden, Bernardo Silva are young and full of strength. In the prime of life De Bruyne and Gundogan. Everyone, except for veteran veteran Fernandinho, is on valid contracts – and the departure of the Brazilian, at his age, will not particularly affect the balance of power in the team.

See also: (Un)lucky number: Ukrainians in the Premier League. Part two. The present

And then there are the gloomy transfer rumors – Man City intends to acquire 23-year-old Spanish left-back Mark Cucurella from Brighton. Considering that Zina, after the arrest of Mendy, was “the first on the hook” just under Canselu and Walker, Alexander may not get match practice from the word at all.

That is why, in 2022, rumors around Zinchenko gained new momentum.

And that’s what the press promises him.

Arsenal (5th place in the Premier League)

• What gets? A chance to reboot and the main role.
• What is at risk? Again a hard fight for the base.
• Source: Daily Mail journalist Jack Gaughan on Twitter.

Information about the London club appeared a little over a week ago. They say that Arteta personally, a former member of Guardiola’s headquarters, wants to see Zinchenko at the Arsenal. The club understands that the amount of compensation will be rather big, and is ready to pay a price that is competitive for the Premier League. At the same time, it is not yet clear whether other players will take Sasha’s vacancy – Arsenal is interested in the left-back of Bologna and the Scottish national team Aaron Hickey (19 years old), Leicester and the Belgian national team centre-half Youri Tielemans (25 years old) and is going to return Uruguayan Lucas Torreira from loan in Fiorentina ( 26 years old), also a player of his national team.

• Competitors LB: Kieran Tierney (24), Nuno Tavares (22)
• SM competitors: Granit Xhaka (29), Martin Odegaard (23), Albert Lokonga (22)

Pros:

– a well-known manager of Arteta
– they see him both in the center of the field and on the flank of the defense
club ambition

Minuses:

– at least a year without the Champions League
— quite serious (and potentially increasing) competition
– since the time of the late Wenger, the club has been in tournament instability
– Man City would rather sell their player to the middle peasants or to another championship, rather than a potential contender for high places and European competitions

Chance – 40%

Newcastle United (11th in the Premier League)

• What gets? With a high probability – a leadership, an important role.
• What is at risk? Stay without European Cups.
• Source: The Athletic.

When in the 2021/22 season it became known about the arrival of Saudi investors, there were memes about buying Mbappe, Neymar, Cristiano, Messi and Benzema for change. In fact, Newcastle showed restraint, somewhat strengthened its position in the Premier League and postponed the main transfers for the off-season. Well, that’s it – and now let’s see who they buy for Eddie Howe.

There are quite a lot of rumors now, but you can’t call the buyout super-star. Newcastle clearly has no intention of becoming a “Christmas bag” like Man City or PSG. However, we note that with interest in Zinchenko, the Magpies are also leading the left back of Atletico Renan Lodi, the central midfielder of Lyon Lukas Paqueta. In addition to the Brazilians in positions of interest to Alex, there are about a dozen other players on the short list.

Zinchenko, with the ability to close several points at once, can be a very pleasant option for Howe. Moreover, in the case of Newcastle, we are talking about the financial viability of big sponsors – this is important, because Man City clearly intends to seriously improve the balance of purchases and sales not by renting, but by selling Alexander.

On the left, Newcastle clearly has a need for a newcomer – in the spring, even a rented player (Matt Targett from Aston Villa) played in defense. But the main thing, as it seems to us, is that Zinchenko would have strengthened United precisely as a centre-half.

• Competitors LB: Jamal Lewis (24), Paul Dummett (30), Matt Ritchie (32)
• SM competitors: Joe Willock (22), Sean Longstaff (24), Jonjo Shelvey (30), Jeff Hendrick (30), Matty Longstaff (22), Jolinton (25), Miguel Almiron (28)

Pros:

— a growing, promising project
– the real need for Alex in both of his positions
– a good opportunity to become a main player in the Premier League club

Minuses:

– a big risk of being left out of European competitions
– if not everywhere qualitative, but quantitative competition
– the difficulties of the project, which has yet to reach the level of claims

Chance – 35%

Everton (16th in the Premier League)

• What gets? Opportunity to become a team leader.
• What is at risk? Due to the instability of the club, even fly out.
• Source: The Athletic.

Unstable Everton, in terms of composition and cost of players, could count on a fight for the top half of the table. Instead, he hung out on the verge of relegation. Lampard, keeping the “toffees” residence in the Premier League, demanded strengthening. And among those whom he wants to see in the team, there is Zinchenko.

Everton’s goal now is to significantly stabilize and improve the results, which is exactly what players like Zina are needed for. Namely, already adapted in England as a country and the Premier League as a tournament, but at the same time young and full of energy. Even assuming that Lampard has decided on Mikolenko as the left-back’s first choice in the long run, this position remains vulnerable and almost unopposed.

In the center of the field, with Ducuré, Gomes, Alli and Sigurdsson, it seemed that one could be calm – but someone is unstable, someone is traumatic, and Gylfi also managed to get banned in connection with a shameful criminal investigation. In a word, in the middle of the field, Everton needs to be strengthened.

Zinchenko is a good answer to these questions. But there are other options as well. So, Everton is going to permanently sign Manchester United midfielder Donny van de Beek, who had previously been on a successful loan from the Toffees. Lampard is interested in 20-year-old midfielder Conor Gallagher, whom he knows from Chelsea – the guy has already been on four loan spells and was a miracle at Crystal Palace. These are Zina’s two main competitors as a reinforcement of the mid lane. But even with their signing (especially given the opportunity to be still useful as a replacement for Mikolenko), Everton and Lampard clearly need Alexander.

• Competitors LB: Vitaliy Mikolenko (23 years old), Ben Godfrey (24 years old, non-main position), Nathan Patterson (20 years old, non-main position)
• SM competitors: Abdoulaye Doukouré (29), André Gomes (28), Tom Davis (23), Fabian Delph (32), Dele Alli (26)

Pros:

– place in your favorite position
– a stable place in the main team
– a good opportunity to become a main player in the Premier League club

Minuses:

– a big risk of being out of European competition
– the prospect of fighting for survival
— project instability

Probability – 45%

Napoli (3rd in Serie A)

• What gets? A completely new career experience.
• What is at risk? Be on the hook in the “golden cage”.
• Source: old rumors.

For the first time, the fact that Napoli is interested in Alexander was talked about back in 2017. They say that the club continues to follow Zinchenko and sees in him, first of all, a central midfielder – a potential leader of the middle line.

At the same time, the situation is now developing in such a way that Zinchenko may need Luciano Spalletti even as a left full-back! The fact is that the old-timer Faouzi Ghulam leaves the team (after 8.5 years, the 31-year-old Algerian has outlived his usefulness in Naples), and one Portuguese Mario Rui remains in place of the left back. He is good, he had a powerful season (6 assists!), but he is also 31 years old and he doesn’t even have a reliable safety net – not to mention competition.

Napoli are traditionally good in the center of the field. However, if you look closely, the Slavs Lobotka and Zelinski need a good balancing midfielder, and this is just the right role for the agile and excellent worker with the ball Alex. And next to such a competitor as the versatile and smart Ruiz, you can progress very decently. In short, even now Zinchenko could play in Naples.

The only question is that this is a completely new championship and linguistic cultural environment. Napoli buys, as for Italy, quite expensive – but reluctantly lets go. Such “golden cages” may in fact turn out to be “canning factories”, where it is no easier to break through than even in a planetary-level project like Man City.

• Competitors LB: Mario Rui (31 years old), Amir Rrahmani (28 years old, non-main position), João Jesus (30 years old, non-main position)
• SM competitors: Stanislav Lobotka (27 years old), Fabian Ruiz (26 years old), Piotr Zelinski (28 years old), Elif Elmas (22 years old)

Pros:

— fresh start in the new championship
– definitely an ambitious club
– Interested in them for a long time

Minuses:

– very high-quality competition in the middle lane
– here again there are more chances to open up on the left in defense than in the middle of the field
– Napoli signed a number of players on long-term contracts since the first time they were interested in Zinchenko

Chance – 25%

* * *

Yes, Zinchenko yearned for the role of team leader, if possible, to play in the middle of the field. But we see what a cool job he has done in Man City, if only in terms of which teams are interested in him now. This is actually the most important signal that shows how interesting Alexander is and is quoted in European football. You look, they will listen to Man City and Kyle Walker, who urged the club to try to keep Zina without fail. Sasha has a contract with the Citizens for another two years – and maybe our assumptions will not be needed and he himself will break into the basis of Manchester City.