The Blues have not yet scored the number of points that guarantee non-relegation. They have a tough calendar.
Yes. We are talking about this seriously. The club, which has spent a record hundreds of millions on transfers, is now so terrible in the game and results that the assumption that Lampard will lose all the rest after the first five matches does not seem fantastic. And with 39 points that the capital club has scored now, you can fly out!
In championships with 38 rounds, it is traditionally considered that 40 points is enough to save. As a rule, this is the case, and the example of the NPL is relevant. But still, there were isolated cases when the losers dived down from 40 (Bolton in 1998) and even 42 (West Ham in 2003) test points.
Well, in just 27 years (since 20 teams began playing in the Premier League) six representatives of the English elite division, who scored 39 points or more, were relegated. Yes, this is a very small percentage. The last time this happened was over ten years ago. And sometimes 35 points were enough to save (like Aston Villa in 2020). But nonetheless. Is there a risk? Eat.
Where there are five bagels – there are ten?
Let’s take a look at the table.
+10 points from the drop zone. With a comfortable goal difference (and this is the main criterion in case of equal credit points) and fewer remaining matches for most competitors. Looks promising. But let’s dig a little deeper and analyze the calendar.
The Aristocrats are ahead: Arsenal and Bournemouth away, Nottingham at home, two matches in a row in Manchester, for a snack – a home meeting with Newcastle. That is, out of six opponents, four represent the Champions League zone, and two more are potential competitors! Just trash, considering that the Blues are now helplessly inferior to the middle peasants – in theory, the most unmotivated layer at the end of the season. Okay, Brighton and Brentford continue to qualify for European competition, and they just play better.
Is the suggestion that Chelsea could lose all of their remaining matches too bold? But wait, why not?
Teams from the top 4 are currently no match for the capital club. Just rivals from different leagues. Yes, one could carefully recall the Arsenal crisis, but the anger with which the Arteta team will enter the derby will simply sweep the unfortunate Pensioners off the field. Is it possible to somehow hope for the relaxation of Newcastle, which decided everything for itself by the last round.
With Bournemouth and Nottingham, the Blues took four points at Boxing Day. But, firstly, then there was Potter and at least some kind of game. Secondly, then tore Mount, who is now injured and generally going to Liverpool. That is, even an outsider with motivation can become an insurmountable barrier for Lampard’s current unprincipled, demotivated and twitchy team. And specifically with the Cherries, the Blues historically do not play well in the Premier League.
What about the competitors?
Okay, the first assumption is made. But a second, much more difficult condition is needed: that at least seven lower teams score more than 39 points. Let’s take turns.
Crystal Palace (37 points) just, in April, gave out a cool unbeaten streak. They have five games left, but of the conditional giants there is only the crisis Tottenham.
Wolverhampton Wolverhampton (37) in general, tears and mosques: three wins in four matches, incl. over Chelsea. At the end of the season, Wolves have Manchester United and Arsenal, but Lopetegui’s team also has where to pick up their points.
West Ham (34) also clearly improved in the last rounds. Only lost to Liverpool, but with a fight, but bit off points from Arsenal. Moyes’ team can, of course, go sideways in the race for the European Cup (the Hammers are in the semi-finals of the Conference League with non-illusory chances for a trophy). In early May, she has a strong traverse: Man City and Manchester United, then immediately – a European duel with AZ. But among the rest of the domestic rivals – Brentford and three competitors (including Leicester and Leeds), there is where to get hold of the right number of points.
Bournemouth (33), as befits a correct English outsider, also perked up at the end of the season: four wins in the last seven matches (including over Liverpool and Tottenham); three to five. But a month ago, he was sadly trailing in the bottom three. Until the end of the season, the Cherries will have to fight Manchester United, but all other opponents (Soton, Leeds, Chelsea, Palace, Everton) are direct competitors! That is, everything is in the hands of Gary O’Neill’s team.
Leeds (30) now, of course, weak. Four defeats in six meetings, three of them devastating. Fresh result – a shamefully missed victory over Leicester. Next up for the Peacocks are Man City and Newcastle, as well as two life games against rivals and a home finish against Tottenham. Is it possible to claim 9 (preferably 10) points in this scenario? In theory, yes.
Nottingham Forrest (30) has not won since the beginning of February, but not weak Brighton just slammed bravely. Ahead – Brentford, Chelsea, Southampton, Arsenal and Crystal Palace. Again, the chances of a dozen credit points do not look illusory. True, out of this five home matches there are only two (including against the Gunners), and according to the results on the road, Lesniki are the worst team in the League by a margin: one win and 6 points in 16 matches.
Leicester (29), like many colleagues, is on a visible rise. Four points in two rounds allowed the Foxes to get out of the relegation zone to the 17th line. Of the tops in the remaining rivals are Liverpool and Newcastle, but, probably, by the time of face-to-face meetings, both will already be deprived of tournament motivation.
Everton (28) of the last seven matches, five have not lost; True, and won only one. Today Irisok – Newcastle, a little further – the City. But the other four opponents look quite beatable. Mathematical chances to get ahead of Chelsea, again, there are.
Southampton (24) looks almost doomed. Yes, he is six points away from salvation – this is theoretically fixable, but it will still be unrealistic to get ahead of a specific Chelsea in the remaining six rounds. However, for our “thought experiment” this is already superfluous.
Chelsea relegation is not a fantasy!
So. Let’s visually and concretely simulate the situation in which Chelsea can leave the Premier League at the end of the season.
All of the following conditions must be met at the same time:
- Chelsea have lost all five of their remaining matches.
- Crystal Palace take three points from dead Spurs and smoke bamboo.
- Wolverhampton are doing the same by beating Brighton or Villa
- West Ham score required 7-9 points with Palace, Brentford and Leeds
- Bournemouth have enough wins over Southampton and Chelsea, as well as some points against KP.
- Nottingham beat Brentford and Chelsea, gaining the remaining 4 points against Soton and the same Palace.
- Leicester beat Fulham and West Ham. This is not enough; so we include a four-point superhero spread against Liverpool and Newcastle. The Reds, very possibly, by that time will have already lost their chances for a place in the Champions League zone. Magpies are the opposite.
- Finally, Everton no less heroically dealt with Brighton, Wolverhampton, Bournemouth and Leicester.
Voila! In the described scenario, Leeds remains “extra”. You can swap him with Lester if you want. That is, WHY instead of Peacocks beat Foxes, and Javi Gracia’s team takes their 10 with Bournemouth, Newcastle, West Ham and Tottenham.
Or is it fantasy?
Of course, it is impossible to seriously believe in the relegation of a club that took the Champions League less than two years ago and finished in the top four a year ago. There are reasonable doubts that Nottingham, Everton, Leeds and Leicester will cope with their “tasks” … Plus, after all, the situation is in the hands of the Aristocrats. Bournemouth and Forest will slam – and do not care about all the other alignments.
However, the very fact that for the current Chelsea, a relegation is possible, nowhere more eloquent. At a minimum, this season for the capital club will be the most unsuccessful in 29 years (14th place in 1994, with 22 teams in the league).
As we have just proved, there are a couple of layouts (albeit with a microscopic degree of probability) in which at the same time, SEVEN clubs below Lampard’s team end up with more points.
How did the Blues come to live like this? About that separate conversation. Certainly not here and not now. The situation really looks absurd: we are considering the possibility of relegation to the lower division for a team that was considered a grand and a contender, if not for the fight for the championship, then certainly for a place in the top 4.
But it also happens. When people come into football who are far from it, and start wasting money too thoughtlessly, taking step by step more deplorable managerial and personnel decisions. Could you at least finish the season with Potter? Can. But it’s much more interesting to call the club legend and the “blue heart” again, who, with an enviable selection of attacking shots, will go home to Brentford with a 5-3-1-1 scheme. Subscribe and receive.
Maybe that’s why Pochettino is in no hurry with the official signing? It’s one thing to accept a crisis, but very money-making grandee with a good transfer carte blanche. And it’s quite another thing to train the same giant in the Championship. As unlikely as this may seem.
Source: Sportarena
I’m Scott Moore, a professional writer and journalist based in the US. I’ve been writing for various publications for over 8 years now, and have been working as an author at athletistic for the past five years. My work has been featured by some of the leading sports websites and magazines across Europe.
