We analyze the statistics of recovering the backlog, similar to the result of the Milan derby, on the eve of the return semi-final of the Champions League
Milan lost to Inter in the first leg of the Champions League semi-finals (formally at home) and put themselves on the brink of failure for the whole season, given the sad results in Serie A.
To be honest, the Red-Blacks have little chance of qualifying for the next European Cup No. 1 through the championship. There is only one thing left – to break through to Istanbul and get victory there. As unlikely as it may seem.
Let’s now leave out a number of objective conditions, such as personnel and game problems, as well as the powerful form gained by Inter in May. We will arm ourselves exclusively with statistics in order to find out: how often did the teams that lost the first match of the Cup/Champions League playoffs by two goals manage to bounce back in the second leg?
In short, yes, quite often. There have been many such cases (albeit with different final outcomes) over the almost 70-year history of the tournament.
We will not load you with tons of facts and figures now, but we will try to run as compactly as possible through all the seasons of the main club tournament in Europe, regardless of its name and scheme.
Important: for the purity of the experiment, we took into account the comebacks that happened at the stage no earlier than ⅛ of the finals. Recall that the European Champions Cup (1955 – 1992), like its fellow contemporaries, was played strictly according to the Olympic system, i.e. consisted entirely of playoff rounds. But, as a rule, in the initial stages (up to the sounded eighths), any levandos was spinning there – and naturally sifted out. Therefore, we will limit ourselves to the most representative “pre-final” rounds.
We will make an exception only for the first two draws of the Champions League – here we also took into account the 1/16 stage.
53 times for 67 years
14 cases in the first 16 KEC draws. 29 for all 37 seasons. In the Champions League – 24 cases in 30 years. And exactly half came from 8 tournaments in the last decade. Including, of course, the famous remontades of Barcelona with PSG (2017), Roma (2018) and Liverpool (2019) with Barcelona. At the same time, it was – every year, then a legendary comeback! And then how jinxed someone. Not the League, but all of us…
So, 53 winbacks of two or more goals in the second leg of the playoffs. More specifically, three goals were played nine times, four – only once (the same miracle at the Camp Nou).
11 times won back did not go further. In the first three cases – due to defeat in an additional match. It is curious that under the rules introduced in European competition since the 1969/70 season, all this trinity – Viennese Rapid, Steaua and Atlético – would have proceeded further thanks to away goals.
In that same season, Celtic and Benfica exchanged 3-0 victories… Orlam’s taste of feat was spoiled by a draw that sent the Scots to the quarter-finals. From the next season, they stopped throwing a coin (pulling a match?!) – a series of 11-meter shots appeared.
All other “underpasses” are associated with the same away goal rule. Except for the last case, we added a fresh example to the list with last year’s Chelsea and its “almost comeback” against Madrid… But we have a separate subsection for this story (and others like it).
About the vicissitudes of hospitality
Still, let’s not close our eyes to the fact that Milan lost their first match at home. Yes, this arena is also home to his opponent. But at least the support factor of the stands can be taken into account – in the Champions League, fan quotas are distributed strictly with a big advantage in favor of the hosts, even if they are nominal ones.
Of course, there were few such cases in the history of EC/CH. But they still were! Let’s briefly go through everything, taking into account the previously agreed framework (we do not take into account the early rounds, where basically anyone fought).
The first episode is referred to as exceptions. We are talking about the preliminary round of the 1962/63 season. Yes, we violate our own conditions, but only once, and here’s why: then for the first time in the history of the “championship” European Cup, there was a win back from home “minus two”. And the participants in this action were not just anyone from the mountain, but quite decent clubs.
Servette lost at home to Feyenoord 1:3, first taking the lead. And he suddenly made a three-ruble note in Amsterdam by the beginning of the second half – the Algerian Meklufi was enchanting. Feye managed to score a saving goal in the last minutes. And then there was a replay in Düsseldorf. For the third time in a row, the club from Geneva opened the scoring. And again he didn’t hold back. The champion of the Netherlands equalized in regular time, and already in overtime put the squeeze on it – the same score 3:1.
Further – only late, important stages. For example, the quarter-finals of the 68/69 season. The story is almost identical, but with a different ending. Ajax, coming into force, was beaten at home by the fading Benfica 1:3, but in Lisbon it changed and led 3:0 (Cruyff’s double) by the 32nd minute. Further, however, did not go. The Eagles managed to score one, but no more. I had to play a third time, in Paris. There, the score was 0:0 until the start of overtime, and then the sons of God broke through. 3-0, and the Michels team continued on their way to their first KECH final.
And on this – how cut off for more than forty years! Yes, we can say that in the “earlier” times the factor of the native field meant more. And at least in the nineties of the playoff matches in the constantly experimented European tournament, it was not that much. But now – the tenths, which are already in contact with us, have come, and with them – new ones relevant to the request of history.
Season 2012/13, ⅛ final. Arsenal seems to have no chance of losing to Bayern at the Emirates with the same bewitched score of 1:3 … But then what happens in Munich! Giroud early goal. Late dessert from compatriot Koscielny. And the Gunners remain one step away from the sensation. They won back the goal difference, and according to the rules of this day, it would be a transition to overtime. But not then.
Two years later. The stage is the same. And Arsenal gives the fans a magical deja vu, merging Monaco with guess what score at home. And then – a complete repetition of the material covered. Giroud’s goal in the first half of the second leg. The second is in the second (this time Ramsey). And… everything. Again, they didn’t budge. Londoners will soon forget about the Champions League for years to come.
Next stop is early spring 2019. Again the hero of the comeback is the English club. And for once, a successful case! We are talking about the memorable period of the early Solskjaer in Manchester United, when the team carried everyone over the bumps for some time without analyzing the names and regalia. Under the hot hand fell and PSG. But how! First, in Manchester, the goals of Kimpembe and Mbappe at the end of the hour seemed to put all the dots and tildes. But a super drama happened at the Parc des Princes. The score 1:2 (Lukaku’s double!) lasted a long time, the hosts squandered their chances recklessly, and then there was a stupid penalty – and goodbye, Paris flies like plywood over itself.
Finally, a case from last season, already mentioned above. Yes, Chelsea still did not give a full-fledged remontade, although they led 3:0 in Madrid after 1:3 at home … But he loosened his grip, missed from Rodrigo, and in extra time, the unstoppable Karim said his word. And, such an impression, it was from then on that everything went wrong for the Blue. However, we are not talking about them here.
Chances are small, but history is to help
How can all this be summed up? Milan has something and someone to look up to in terms of historical statistics. A two-goal defeat is not a sentence at all, it is calmly recouped even in the later stages of the toughest European Cup. Another thing is that case from comebacks after home defeats is quite skinny. In addition, Milan itself was never among the victors, and the Italians were extremely rare (Inter in the 65th, Roma in the 84th and 18th).
Well, just: Inter is an objective favorite, it was such even before the first meeting, and even now even more so. However, hope only dies when it is allowed to do so. And the vital activity of this ethereal entity, as we have just seen, has something to back it up.
Source: Sportarena
I’m Scott Moore, a professional writer and journalist based in the US. I’ve been writing for various publications for over 8 years now, and have been working as an author at athletistic for the past five years. My work has been featured by some of the leading sports websites and magazines across Europe.
