The national team of Ukraine, as a rule, poorly holds the second matches. And the main rival of our team for reaching the European Championship is Italy
In a few days national team of Ukraine the most difficult segment of the entire qualifying cycle is ahead – matches with two European tops, included in the top ten of the world ranking, finalists of the last Euro …
And stop. Let’s not deceive anyone. The real top here is only England, which is displayed in the current results.. The Italian team, despite the fact that the current champion of the continents, is going through a protracted crisis, flew past the World Cup twice in a row, just changed its coach … And it is by no means crammed with top-level players.
Donnarumma, Tonali, Barella? Sorry, and we have our own people in the top clubs. An aging Immobile, an eternally injured Chiesa? Yes, hardly. Star veterans Bonucci, Verratti, Jorginho? So they are not in the current convocation. Like the ever-promising Berardi.
The compositions are comparable. A game? An enigma, Spalletti starts with a clean slate. But under Mancini, it has been weak lately. Failed selection to Qatar with a loss to North Macedonia. Bronze of the League of Nations – well, not bad, but somehow secondary. A home defeat against England “in the class” six months ago – that’s hot, that’s crucial.
Objectively: Italy is the rival of Ukraine in the fight for the second place in Group C. England rushed into space, she has no real opponents at this level. The Southgate team can issue an early exit from the group in the next match – yes, yes, against our team.
And here there is a snag. On the one hand, it is not worthwhile to tune in to the slaughter in advance. On the other hand, objectively it would be nice to save strength against a stronger, but less important opponent. So that there are as many as you need for the second match.
Because second matches “in a spark” Ukraine historically plays worse than the first. “The curse of the second match” is perhaps too hype a label, but there are objective statistics. Let’s turn to her.
It would be logical not to dig the entire more than 30-year history. And to focus on the current, “post-Fomenkovsky” segment, starting from the autumn of 2016 – just then the current image of the national team began to take shape, with Matvienko, Zinchenko, Tsygankov, Malinovsky hand-in-hand with more experienced partners (Krivtsov, Stepanenko, Sidorchuk, Yarmolenko).
We will only consider official matches played in a row (with a difference of 3-4 days) in one international pause.
- 06.10.16. World Cup Türkiye – Ukraine – 2: 2
- 09.10.16. World Cup Ukraine – Kosovo – 3:0 (in Poland)
We start – and immediately with not the most indicative result. But we make allowances for the obvious difference in class between Turks and Kosovars. On an outsider there and Shevchenko, who played only the third official match as the main one, the squad slightly rotated.
- 09/02/17. World Cup Ukraine – Türkiye – 2: 0
- 09/05/17. World Cup Iceland – Ukraine – 2: 0
Here is an oil painting. The match in Reykjavik is one of the worst for the national team in the era of Sheva the coach. Early Sheva for sure.
- 10/06/17. World Cup Kosovo – Ukraine – 0: 2
- 09.10.17. World Cup Ukraine – Croatia – 0:2
Decisive battles. It was still possible to cling to the last chance. And, of course, too much effort was not spent on Kosovo. But … They did not succeed. To the cheerful chorus of conspiracy theorists to the motive “I didn’t really want to”.
- 09/06/18. LN. Czech Republic – Ukraine – 1: 2
- 09.09.18. LN. Ukraine – Slovakia – 1:0
Premier League of Nations. Our guys started for health, and the second match came out no worse than the first. Adjusted for the fact that it was still mined in the native walls.
- 03/22/19. European Championship Portugal – Ukraine – 0:0
- 03/25/19. European Championship Luxembourg – Ukraine – 1: 2
Formally, a victory after a draw. But what a draw it was – on the field of the reigning European champion! And what a victory – over an outsider, with a lousy game, with a miracle gift from Gerson Rodriguez in stoppage time.
- 06/07/19. European Championship Ukraine – Serbia – 5: 0
- 06/10/19. European Championship Ukraine – Luxembourg – 1:0
Two wins. But first – the enchanting removal of not weak Serbia. And then – a faded minimal salary with the same Luxembourg.
- 10/11/19. European Championship Ukraine – Lithuania – 2: 0
- 10/14/19. European Championship Ukraine – Portugal – 2: 1
A rare case when there are no complaints at all in the second match. Victory over a top opponent, early access to the Euro.
- 09/03/20. LN. Ukraine – Switzerland – 2: 1
- 09/06/20. LN. Spain – Ukraine – 4: 0
In division A, I had to take some bumps. In the suburbs of Madrid, Ramos, Fati and Co. ate an opponent without choking.
- 10.10.20. LN. Ukraine – Germany – 1: 2
- 10/13/20. LN. Ukraine – Spain – 1:0
Here, too, formally success – but what an unexpected one! — in the second meeting. With the very goal of Tsygankov, who took revenge on the Pyrenees for that same Tsynikov.
But, in fairness, this bunch of matches was preceded by a freight train in Paris on October 7th. 1:7…
- 03/24/21. World Cup France – Ukraine – 1: 1
- 03/28/21. World Cup Ukraine – Finland – 1:1
- 03/31/21. World Cup Ukraine – Kazakhstan – 1: 1
The first full-fledged bunch of three official matches in a row. Three identical results, but with what different content. First, a draw on the field of the world champion, and then a frankly missed victory. Further – similarly, but we’re talking about the second matches after all.
- Out of competition. Euro 2020
Let’s leave Euro 2021 out of the picture. Still, this is a slightly different story: the team plays all (or many) matches in one place, preparing for the tournament for a long time and systematically …
If we nevertheless turn to those results, then at first Shevchenko’s team lost in a bright confrontation to the strongest team in the group, the Netherlands, and four days later they beat the outsider, dying noticeably in the second half. The third match was even worse, and thanks to the regulations, as well as the “third” side that let us into the playoffs.
Eight days have passed between the matches against Austria and Sweden, so our counter can be reset. And we will get 0:4 from England on the fourth day after the heroic victory of Besedin/Dovbik in overtime in Glasgow.
- 09/01/21. World Cup Kazakhstan – Ukraine – 2: 2
- 09/04/21. World Cup Ukraine – France – 1:1
Here it is exactly the opposite – a draw with a tough opponent after losing points (again, epic) against an outsider. The first bumps stuffed by Petrakov…
- 09.10.21. World Cup Finland – Ukraine – 1: 2
- 10/12/21. World Cup Ukraine – Bosnia and G. – 1: 1
And again, the strength was not enough. After all the previous losses, misfires were unacceptable. A draw with the Bosnians put the blue-and-yellows on the brink of failure … It did not happen – thanks to the subsequent success in Zenica.
But the playoffs were still ahead. Already against the backdrop of a full-scale war …
- 06/01/22. World Cup Scotland – Ukraine – 1: 3
- 06/05/22. World Cup Wales – Ukraine – 1: 0
An eloquent case. The fatal result of the second meeting with, in general, a good game. Another World Cup without us.
- 06/08/22. LN. Ireland – Ukraine – 0: 1
- 06/11/22. LN. Ukraine – Armenia – 3:0 (in Poland)
An excellent second result, but the opponent was, perhaps, a little simpler. At least not already without Mkhitaryan. Six months later, Petrakov will host the Armenian team.
- 09/14/22. LN. Ukraine – Ireland – 1:1 (in Poland)
- 09/21/22. LN. Scotland – Ukraine – 3: 0
And then again, an unhappy ending. An uncontested pogrom in Glasgow (again this Glasgow, again this Hampden Park!), revenge of the Scots for June, a barrier in front of Division A of the League of Nations … And, no less regrettable, a relegation to the third pot during the draw for the EL selection. That for the Ukrainian team backfired immediately. A furious draw in the face of two recent Euro finalists – get it and sign it!
- 06/16/23. European Championship Sev. Macedonia – Ukraine – 2: 3
- 06/19/23. European Championship Ukraine – Malta – 1:0 (in Slovakia)
To begin with, we frolic with the underdogs. It turned out to be unexpectedly difficult. Rebrov started with a disastrous half, but then there was a historic comeback in Skopje. Against the background of this performance, the forced victory over Malta looked so-so. However, three points is three points.
And now we come to our current pair – with the favorites of Group C. First in Wroclaw, three days later in Milan.
Let’s consider that here Ukraine has played enough in seven years with Shevchenko, Petrakov and Rebrov. We remind you that only official matches (European Championship qualifying, World Cup qualifying, League of Nations) played in a row, with a difference of several days, within one international pause were taken into account.
First matches: 10 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss. Goal difference 31:15
Second matches: 8 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses. Goal difference 17:17.
In general, quite indicative results, especially in terms of the difference between goals scored and conceded. An important fact: out of the first 16 fights, 10 were away at once. Whereas the second meeting on the opponent’s field took place only five times.
More about those very second matches. Of the eight victories, five were won over outsiders: Kosovo, Luxembourg (twice), Armenia, Malta. In three cases out of five they were minimal. Of the three draws, two (with Finland and Bosnia and Herzegovina) can be considered a failure. Sad statistics ahead of the upcoming battles.
Therefore, it is worth asking the question posed in the title: and not to save Ukraine strength in the first match? The chances against powerful England are objectively minimal, and with Italy, our players need to at least share points if we seriously want to leave the fate of the ticket to Euro 24 in our own hands.
The application of the Rebrov team allows you to arrange a rotation in all positions. Yes, we don’t even have two full-fledged squads, only three or four positions are more or less qualitatively interchangeable. Well, that’s not what we’re talking about. Perhaps it makes sense on September 9 to save the key leaders, those who simply cannot physically pull out two matches in a row (and there is only three days difference with the flight from Wroclaw to Milan)?
Judge for yourself. In our tournament situation, giving all our strength and heroically clinging some points against the leader of the group, and then losing to Italy in exhaustion is worse than vice versa. Because the key struggle in our quintet is for the second place. And rivals comparable in strength participate in it.
Source: Sportarena
I’m Scott Moore, a professional writer and journalist based in the US. I’ve been writing for various publications for over 8 years now, and have been working as an author at athletistic for the past five years. My work has been featured by some of the leading sports websites and magazines across Europe.
