Only in 22% of cases, the representative of Ukraine started in the main European Cup no worse than the team of Jovicevich
There is a pause for international matches ahead, the Champions League will return in two and a half weeks. Time to knock out the intermediate results of the performance of the Jovicic team in this tournament.
The starting result is beyond praise, especially considering the unhappy circumstances. Last year, no less was expected from the “Brazilian” Shakhtar, bearing in mind the six points against Madrid in the fall of 2020. Now… The window of expectation moved with a whistle.
The victory in Leipzig for the current Pitmen is a small miracle, no less than the more status team of Luis Castro at Alfredo di Stefano in Madrid. A draw against Celtic is also an achievement, albeit on a smaller scale. Let’s remember the course of the game and let’s not flatter ourselves, but at the same time demand too much from this young, almost completely Ukrainian team.
It is difficult to build optimistic forecasts now. Real Madrid is Real Madrid, a ruthless machine that, even at idle, can roll even stronger opponents into the asphalt. Leipzig instantly came to life under Rose – for example, a few days after the shame of the first round, the Bulls already smashed the not-weak Dortmund in the championship. Well, Celtic is a well-played, running team with an experienced coach and a more expensive squad.
Nevertheless, the Pitmen have the pole position now. Taking this opportunity, we went over in memory all the starts of our clubs in the Champions League group stages and found out how often they scored four points in the first two rounds. Or more (i.e. 6). And what did it give them, our clubs, in the end.
Story. Shakhtar are slightly more successful, but four points in two rounds is no guarantee of success
It is clear that all league groups for Ukraine are Dynamo and Shakhtar. The people of Kiev have played in the group stage of the main European Cup 20 times since independence. Such an adventure happened to the Donetsk team 16 times, but Shakhtar started much later. The first group for the Donetsk club happened only in 2000 (Prokopenko!), and the Orange-and-Blacks began to regularly enter the main draw of the Champions League already under Lucescu.
An important caveat: we take into account the 1991/92 season in our statistics. Strictly speaking, it was not yet the Champions League, but the CEC with an experimental group stage at the ¼ final stage. Dynamo managed to break into the top eight and in its group managed to play two rounds before the end of the year, with which at the same time it became the property of history and the USSR.
In addition, before 1995, two points were awarded for a victory, not three. But for the purity of the experiment, we take into account the points scored by the Dynamo team in the 91/92 and 94/95 seasons (on the positive side there is only a landmark victory over Spartak in the first round), according to the modern system.
So. The Kyiv club has more modest statistics than Shakhtar. Further in the Champions League, the teams went through the same number of times – four each. True, for Dynamo in one of the cases it was not the playoffs, but the second group stage (season 1999/2000). As a matter of fact — replacement of ⅛ finals. It’s paradoxical: Lobanovsky’s team then had 7 points to pass the first group, but the Kyivians did not get out of the second quartet even with ten.
In more than half of the cases – 11 – Dynamo finished in last place. Seven of them – in the last 11 attempts.
And here’s what is curious: only twice the White-Blues had 4 points after two rounds. And both times it led to the passage to the playoffs with 11 points!
The situation in 1997 is especially reminiscent of the current history of Shakhtar. The team is almost without foreigners, for Europe – the actual noname (in this composition). The first match was a bright away victory over a status rival from Central Europe. Then – a home draw with the representative of Great Britain. Next – a spark with the group’s favorite, the formidable Spanish grandee … Continue the analogy ?!
Only once in the starting rounds Dynamo gained maximum. And – imagine! – as a result, only third place and a “descent” into the UEFA Cup awaited them. It was in the 2004/05 season. How then did they release the Creamy in Kyiv!..
Shakhtar has slightly better overall statistics. The most popular place for them is the third (9 cases out of 16). Accordingly, only three times the Pitmen from the Champions League group did not make it to the European spring – even if more often it was the “junior” European Cup.
The Donetsk club scored four points in the first two matches until this season three times. For more details, see the relevant material.
And here’s what’s interesting: being clearly above average results (see below), these 4 points were doubled in two cases and led only to the third position in the quartet (2013, 2020). And only in 2012, the peak miner of the Lucescu era, with ten points, managed to get out of the harsh group with Juventus and Chelsea.
Unlike Dynamo, the Orange-and-Blacks took maximum points in the opening rounds twice. And if in 2010 the result was a record 15 and a historic first place (ahead of Arsenal!), then in 2007 Lucescu-team was in for a deplorable failure. The starting 6 points (victories over Celtic – yeah, again – and Benfica) remained the only prey of the team. Even for the third line, this was not enough.
Results. The result is above average, but the prospects are vague
Dynamo averaged exactly two points after two rounds of the Champions League group stage. Shakhtar’s figure is better, but not by much – 2.5.
Kievans finished the group stage with an average of 6 points. For Shakhtar, this figure is 7.5.
Only in 8 cases out of 36 (22%) the representative of Ukraine scored the same or more points in the main European Cup than Shakhtar now. Four times this was enough for a passage place. Three times the result was the third line in the quartet.
As you can see, this season the Pitmen – so far! – produce results above average. You can properly unscrew the valve of skepticism and notice that with the Eltik, the guys of Jovicevic bounced back, and against Leipzig, in addition to luck, there were many stars – to the point that a much stronger (nominally) opponent did not play football, but did what the hell in general, the coach melted.
To pass the group (we are talking about the first two places), Ukrainian clubs needed an average of 11 points. Specifically, Shakhtar – in different years 9, 10, 12 and 15.
In the current realities, especially if we talk about forecasts before the start of the group stage, the Pitmen will be happy with the third position, which guarantees the continuation of the European Cup history. On average, seven final points are enough for the Miners to achieve this goal. It remains to guess where exactly in the remaining rounds the representative of Ukraine will be able to get hold of three more (and preferably more) test points.
Let’s be honest: it’s likely that Shakhtar won’t score anything else in Europe this year. And very likely to finish last. But already the miracle of the first round showed that everything is possible, but it is pleasant to surprise the Donetsk club, which has been forced to play outside its hometown for the ninth year already (and specifically now in the Champions League – outside its native country), can do it with any mentor.
Finally, a mercantile remark. One point in the Champions League group is almost 1 million euros. Neither more nor less. For a modern Ukrainian club living in the conditions of war, this is definitely a lot. And the representative of our heroic country will cling to each credit point with special passion.
Source: Sportarena
I am Sandra Jackson, a journalist and content creator with extensive experience in the news industry. I have been working in the news media for over five years. During this time, I have worked as an author and editor at various outlets producing high-quality content that attracts readers from different demographics.
