This weekend, rainfall is expected in the capital, the first relevant for almost six months, in the midst of a mega-drought that has lasted for more than a decade and a deficit that reaches 100%.
The beginning of 2023 has been marked for multiple temperature readings , all associated with heat. February and March were The hottest “February” and “March” in Santiago and the central zone since there are records, and the beginning of April was also governed by several records. The high temperatures lasted for so many weeks, that literally the summer lasted for nearly five months.
These staggering figures made 2023 the hottest start to the year in the capital’s history.
However, this weekend rain is expected in the Metropolitan Region and a significant part of the central zone, which would mean great news in the midst of a mega-drought that has been present for more than a decade, a real “ray of hope”.
Atmospheric river and tropical humidity: the reasons for the first rains in Santiago
Raúl Cordero, climatologist at the University of Santiago points out that it would be the first relevant rains in Santiago in nearly six months. “A relief to the drought that affects practically the entire national territory. Between Santiago and Chillán the current deficits are over 80% so the rainfall forecast for the next few days is extraordinarily welcome.”
“It is also interesting to note that rainfall will be associated with the humidity of the tropics. In effect, This is the arrival of a new atmospheric river in Chile “, adds the climatologist.
Despite the above, Cordero explains that the capital should already have received at least 18 mm of rain . And so far the rain gauges mark 0, that is a rainfall deficit of 100%, which could change with the rains announced for the next few days.
First rains in Santiago: how much and when will it rain?
According to the meteorological site Meteored, everything indicates that the central area and Santiago will receive the first rains of the year this weekend .
The projection is based on the Model ECMWF , which shows rainfall between the regions of coquinbo and the lakes with greater intensity in the interior areas between the Region of O’Higgins and the northern sector of Patagonia, which can precipitate up to about 60 mm above normal.
According to this projection, Santiago could receive the first rains of the year this On Friday, when the capital should receive 14 mm, with a 90% chance of that happening. By Saturday, the capital is expected to receive around 14mm of rain with a 90% chance of it being so.
On Sunday, the probability it falls to only 70%, with about 3.7 mm of rain, according to the climate portal. He adds that the rest of the country would face below normal rain conditions. The northern area would have no precipitation during the week, while in the far south some fairly weak frontal systems will pass through the section leaving accumulated amounts below the average for the season.
Miguel Fernandez, meteorologist from the Catholic University of Valparaíso is cautious and reminds that it is still premature to make a forecast with a reasonable percentage of success, because the frontal system under study is still far from the territory, but he affirms that it is estimated that it will affect all its activity from the Maule regions to the south, concentrating greater rainfall between the regions of Ñuble and Los Ríos, for the days from April 27 to 30.
Even so, Fernández explains that the system will extend its actions to the Metropolitan Region from Friday 28 April , with a probability of light rains concentrated towards the eastern sector of the region, that is to say the foothills and the mountains. “Between Saturday 29 and Sunday 30, these probabilities increase, covering the entire metropolitan area and the southern area of the Valparaíso region,” he adds, but insists that the volume of water that could fall is still uncertain.
The arrival of El Niño gives hope for more rains in winter
After three consecutive unusual years with the presence of the La Niña phenomenon (2020, 2021 and 2022), climatologists and meteorologists officially decreed the end of their presence on the planet.
La Niña has had a moderating effect on temperatures, but if El Niño develops, as most forecasts suggest, this year 2023 will not only be in Chile, “but overall, one of the hottest years in history” warns Lamb.
Furthermore, the latest predictions of the El Niño phenomenon They establish that it will be an intense event, what would that mean record global temperatures in 2023 and 2024, bringing the Earth closer to a warming threshold closer to that predicted by scientists. In the short and medium term, it is expected that the phenomenon will give way to a warm phase of the waters of the equatorial Pacific in the months to come.
“While winter is several months away, so any projections should be taken with a grain of salt, there’s a good chance that next winter will be marked by the development of El Niño”, confirms Cordero.
Source: Latercera
I am David Jack and I have been working in the news industry for over 10 years. As an experienced journalist, I specialize in covering sports news with a focus on golf. My articles have been published by some of the most respected publications in the world including The New York Times and Sports Illustrated.
