Study reveals unexpected method that could predict future earthquakes

According to a study by Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences (FIP PAN) there is a statistical relationship between global seismic activity and changes in cosmic ray intensity, which could help us to predict telluric movements .

In 2016 the FIP PAN launched the project CREED (Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory), in order to verify a previously established hypothesis: earthquakes could be predicted by observing changes in cosmic radiation.

Thus, Polish researchers have analyzed 50 years of data and discovered that the intensity of seismic events is correlated with the average variation of the intensity of secondary particles created by the secondary cosmic radiation.

This type of radiation is produced by the interaction of cosmic rays and the earth’s atmosphere in this direction, it is suggested that what affects the intensity of global seismic activity is the ability of cosmic particles to break through Earth’s defenses.

THE cosmic rays they are fragments of atoms that shine at the speed of light and rain down on Earth from outside the solar system. Electronic problems in satellites and other machines are attributed to them.

“At first glance, the idea that there is a connection between earthquakes and cosmic radiation, in its primary form which comes to us mainly from the Sun and deep space, may seem strange. However, its physical foundations are quite rational.” explained Dr. Piotr Homola, Coordinator of CREDO and first author of the discovery article.

The CREDO project is a virtual cosmic ray observatory open to everyone, which collects and processes data, not only with sophisticated scientific detectors, but also with a large number of smaller detectors, including sensors such as CMOS , found in smart phones.

One of the main missions of CREDO is monitor global changes in the flux of secondary cosmic radiation from the Earth’s surface. The radiation that occurs mainly in the earth’s stratosphere where primary cosmic ray particles collide with gas molecules in our atmosphere and initiate cascades of secondary particles.

This is why an area of ​​importance for observation are the eddy currents, in the liquid core of our planet, responsible for generating the earth’s magnetic field field required to deflect the trajectories of charged particles of primary cosmic radiation.

Based on this, scientists have hypothesized that if large earthquakes are related to disturbances in the flow of matter that drives the earth’s dynamo, the magnetic field would be altered, which in turn would affect the trajectory of primary cosmic ray particles. As a result, ground sensors should note changes in the amount of secondary cosmic ray particles detected.

In this line, Physicists analyzed data on the intensity of cosmic rays from two stations, the neutron monitor and the Pierre Auger Observatory . Both selected because they are located on opposite sides of the equator and use different detection techniques. Key information on seismic activity has been obtained through the program of United States Geological Survey.

The analyzes led to the correlation between secondary cosmic ray intensity And the magnitude of all earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 4 .

Scientists have pointed out that the relationship is made with the arrival of cosmic rays 15 days before the seismic phenomenon something quite positive given that it would give a long time to anticipate a possible telluric movement .

However, it was unclear whether the location of the seismic event could be determined by the analysis, as changes in cosmic ray intensity occur on the planet in general and not in specific sectors of Earth. .

“The most important thing at this stage of the investigation is that we have highlighted a link between the cosmic radiation recorded on the surface of our planet and its seismicity and if there’s one thing we can be sure of, it’s that our observations point to completely new and exciting research opportunities,” Homola said.