What could happen if Israel entered the Gaza Strip to confront Hamas?

It was last October 7 when activists of Hamas they went from Gaza strip towards Israel in order to carry out a series of attacks which quickly triggered the armed response from this country.

After these events, the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu He emphatically vowed that his forces would do everything possible to “destroy” the Palestinian organization. .

And until this moment, its militias continued to constantly bombard the territory in the middle of a scenario that continues to add deaths and uncertainty around kidnapped hostages.

In front of this situation, US President Joe Biden, who has already met with Netanyahu in Israel, said that while he believes Hamas must be completely eliminated, he does not support a possible occupation by Israeli soldiers. in the zone.

“I think it would be a mistake for Israel to occupy Gaza again. But come in to eliminate the extremists, Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in the south, is a necessary condition,” he said last week.

But, How possible is it that Israeli forces can eliminate Hamas from the Gaza Strip? What would an operation of this magnitude lead to?

In conversation with La Tercera, specialists in international issues decipher the keys to consider.

The studies secretary of the School of History of Diego Portales University (UDP), Pablo Álvarez, declares that It is ‘virtually impossible’ for Israel to dismantle Hamas with its recent and progressive attacks.

“They have been bombing systematically since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. (…) This is not the first battle against them and they have never succeeded in overthrowing them. What would change with this war? “That they would enter the territory” .

The doctor of History and academic of Adolfo Ibáñez University (AUI), Fernando Wilson, explains that Israeli statements instead refer to “the destruction of Hamas’ military capacity in Gaza, that is to say the possibility that it will continue to launch rockets and especially repeat an attack.” terrorist with kidnappings and murders as we saw on October 7.

“It’s not necessarily about disintegrating them, but rather about removing them from the scene, in a way that that they cease to be an obstacle and a threat regular (…) It is not in Israel’s interest to deal with the political and social problems of a population of 2 million. there are almost nine of them and with all the impact that this would have on their own political processes.”

Under this line, Wilson emphasizes: “What Israel wants is to drive Hamas out of Gaza. And this would undoubtedly relieve them on the southern front and also reassure Egypt. (…) Let us remember that Hamas considers itself a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the group that fights against the secular institutions of this country.”

“What Israel would probably do would be to enter Hamas, expel it, as was done at the time by withdrawing the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) from Beirut, and finally generate a transition to a multinational authority. which provides a properly Gazan government or for the Palestinian Authority residing in the West Bank to take over,” adds the AUI academic.

However, Wilson and Álvarez assure that a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip by Israeli troops is a complex objective .

This is due to several factors, including the characteristics of the area, the underground Hamas tunnels, the difficulties in distinguishing civilians and the pressures from the international community to name just a few aspects.

Regarding this last point, the UDP academic asserts that “many countries that have already signed peace with Israel – such as Jordan and Egypt – or are in the process of doing so – such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia – They said there was no carte blanche, you couldn’t just enter the territory “.

“Even the United States, even if it has a veto at the United Nations, will not be able to prevent a diplomatic offensive against it” adds Álvarez.

To this is added that Egypt, Israel’s ally in the region, resisted the opening of the Rafah crossing because “deep down, it is afraid that the entry of Israeli troops means that it will remain in this territory and that the Palestinians will not come back.” never in Gaza,” says the UDP expert.

In addition to the international implications that a terrestrial submergence of this magnitude could have, There are also consequences in the internal sphere, notably towards Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. which was widely criticized even in Israel.

“Netanyahu He was already very unpopular, but now he has less support. They have already protested against him and even many Israelis call him a “war criminal”. , ‘a traitor’, etc. He will try to survive and he will probably go to war for that purpose, but he certainly has a difficult vision,” Álvarez emphasizes.

Wilson explains that military operations in closed terrain – as would be the case in this case if Israel carried out a ground dive – are distinguished by their complexity, because The characteristics of the zone “negate the advantage of a professional army, eliminating, quote, its superiority in terms of organization, tactical coordination, training and equipment.” .

“It becomes what the Germans called during World War II Rattenkrieg or “rat war”, i.e. fighting between subunits of soldiers who face each other at extremely short ranges and cannot use their greater firepower “.

To face this possible scenario, the IAU academic predicts that Israel’s strategy in the Gaza Strip could focus on isolating specific areas, to try to prevent a reinforcement in those areas and then “seek to wipe out the guerrillas in an extremely rapid manner.” and with a lot of power.

“It is impossible for operations of this nature to be extremely bloody, both for the attackers and the defenders, who are normally those who suffer the greatest losses. . In some cases of urban combat with a tenacious defense, they suffer up to 80% casualties,” Wilson warns.

As mentioned above, The underground tunnels that Hamas uses strategically inside Gaza also promise to make a possible operation of this type difficult. .

Likewise, the AUI expert states that The militants of the Palestinian organization do not have a specific uniform, “they do not wear a nationality badge” and “they do not have a clear way of fighting” .

This makes very complex to distinguish them .

“This creates a serious adversary recognition problem for Israeli soldiers, who will inexorably generate an extraordinarily high number of civilian casualties “Plus, it would be a very slow operation that could probably take several weeks or months.”

In the words of Álvarez: “How would they know who is Hamas and who is not? They will be able to eliminate the leaders, those they know (…) They can eliminate the ringleaders, but the children of the region will see it and they will grow up with this resentment, with this hatred and they will also transform into Hamas. “.

According to the analysis of the UDP academic, The current scenario could generate two main situations .

One is that Israel ultimately decides not to enter Gaza, which does not imply that it stops bombing the territory from a distance, as they have done so far.

“It’s an alternative. And the other would be a full military incursion, that is, going into Gaza. It would be more devastating, but it would also take a long time, because they would have to search tunnel after tunnel, corner by corner, and then “clear” the area (that’s what they said) for the Palestinians to return. . “Either case is a long shot.”

For his part, Wilson insists that the aforementioned difficulties that land immersion would involve They would also make the situation “disastrous in terms of political pressure”. of the international community.

Hamas is not immune to such pressures either. . In fact, acts such as the release of certain hostages – as we have seen in recent days – reflect the fact that The Palestinian organization is “subject to brutal pressure from other traditional actors” .

“It is even presumed that he comes from Iran. This is a conflict that does not suit many factions, it only highlights Iran’s isolation and does not bring it greater stability or prospects for maneuver in an environment that, let’s say, crystallizes in a binary system. : Iran on one side and everyone else on the other. So this is very far from their convenience.

In this sense, Wilson asserts that “Israel needs to do something in Gaza to show off its population, but it doesn’t have to be a full-scale invasion” .

“These can be what we call ‘thunder races’, which are penetrations with mechanized forces into less densely urbanized areas, with the aim of destroying specific targets which are essentially entrances and exits, not occupation. It’s not that Israel wants to regain control of the Gaza Strip, what it wants is for Hamas not to be there. » .