“The big one”, the possible next pandemic: this virus inflames the brain and kills half of its victims

Whether it starts next week, next year, or next decade, another pandemic is on the way. Nicknamed “the big one”, experts say that this disease It could be the most contagious and deadly virus in history.

It is estimated that there are 1.6 million viruses circulating among animal and bird populations around the world, and more than half of them have the ability to infect humans. And a significant proportion of these viruses have already done so.

It is Nipah virus (NiV) , capable of infecting cells with receptors that regulate the passage of substances into and out of cells that line the central nervous system and vital organs.

NiV is one of 10 of 16 infectious diseases identified by the WHO as a major public health risk, as it has a high mortality rate ranging from 40% to 75% depending on the origin of the epidemic and has no cure.

For comparison, over the past four years, Covid-19, a disease with a mortality rate of less than 1%, has killed around 7 million people . The World Health Organization highlights the Nipah virus and its close cousins ​​as some of your highest priority pathogens

The symptoms of the Nipah virus, according to the WHO, can manifest themselves in different ways, since they can be both asymptomatic as well as “to cause a acute respiratory illness (mild or severe) or fatal encephalitis [inflamación del cerebro]”.

It should therefore be noted that infected people will initially present flu symptoms, such as fever, headache, vomiting, muscle aches, and sore throat.

However, the above can also be accompanied by dizziness, drowsiness, altered consciousness, as well as “neurological signs indicating acute encephalitis .

This virus is a member of the paramyxovirus family, made up of more than 75 viruses and encompassing members such as mumps, measles, and respiratory tract infections. This family has been added to the list of pandemic pathogens to monitor National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases in October.

Like flu viruses and coronaviruses, Paramyxoviruses can spread through the air, sometimes very quickly. In an article from The Atlantic Dr. Benhur Lee, a respected virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, says this has certainly been the case with measles, a paramyxovirus that is “literally the most transmissible human virus on the planet” .

And like Covid-19, paramyxoviruses are found in a wide variety of animals. In fact, Nipah virus was first detected in 1998 in Malaysia during an outbreak of the disease. According to World Health Organization (WHO) In this first discovery, the intermediate host was the pig. However, in 2004, during a new outbreak in Bangladesh, infected people contracted this virus after consuming date palm sap contaminated by infected fruit bats.

What sets them apart is that viruses like flu and Covid “rapidly change shape,” scientists say, and are able to mutate and adapt. Paramyxoviruses, on the other hand, do not mutate when they spread, but they have nonetheless become “very good at human-to-human transmission.”

In a statement, Michael Norris, Ph.D., assistant professor at the University of Toronto, said: “Imagine if a paramyxovirus appeared, as contagious as measles and as deadly as Nipah. »

Although paramyxoviruses are known to mutate more slowly than influenza and coronaviruses, Virologists have raised a crucial concern, highlighting the rapid spread of these viruses among humans.

In September, an outbreak of the deadly Nipah virus occurred in Kerala, India, resulting in two deaths. Six people have been infected and this is the fourth outbreak in five years of the deadly Nipah virus, which inflames the brain.

To stop the spread, authorities had to deploy an army of workers who partially closed the Kerala village and eight others for two weeks. They checked more than 53,000 homes for the virus and located 1,200 people who had been in contact with infected patients, according to the World Health Organization.

In a 2022 report titled “Strengthening Australia’s Pandemic Preparedness” Paramyxoviruses stand out as a virus that is increasingly being transmitted from animals to humans at an alarming rate. The report also highlights the rise of new viruses, with the potential for larger outbreaks, reinforcing growing concerns about pandemics.

In May 2023, at the World Health Assembly, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the organization’s member states must prepare to face future pandemics.

“When the next pandemic comes – and it will – we must be prepared to respond decisively, collectively and equitably. » declared the director during the 74th edition of the assembly.

In his speech, the director of the organization mentioned that the threat of the emergence of a new, more deadly pathogen in the world persists, and Bingham, who led the team responsible for acquiring vaccines for the United Kingdom and which was the key to vaccination success in his country, he wrote “We must take the first steps now to face the next pandemic. »

In this context, the WHO explained that the virus has not yet materialized and that it is therefore working with the aim of monitoring, predicting and avoiding the lack of preparation that the Covid-19 crisis has had. According to international studies, there is a 27.5% chance that a pandemic as deadly as Covid-19 will occur in the next decade as viruses appear more frequently, and the rapid rollout of vaccines is key to reducing deaths.