Why is the WHO calling for a global treaty to deal with the dreaded disease that will cause the next pandemic?

This Saturday, during the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2024, which opened Monday in Davos, Switzerland, the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Ghebreyesus called on countries to sign a pandemic treaty so the world can prepare for “Disease X”.

Last Wednesday, a group of WHO experts met at the WEF with other health officials to discuss the outlook for Disease X, a health threat. Ghebreyesus said that He hopes that countries will reach an agreement on the pandemic in May to fight this “common enemy”.

What is the dreaded disease X that the WHO is preparing for?

Disease X, term used by the WHO to describe a unknown infectious disease that could cause a serious pandemic in the future . The term was first used in 2018 during the World Health Assembly, when the WHO included disease X in its list of priority diseases for vaccine research and development.

This virus hasn’t formed yet, but scientists say that It could be 20 times more deadly than Covid-19. In 2017 it was added to the WHO shortlist of pathogens for research this could cause a “serious international epidemic,” according to a 2022 WHO press release.

In May 2023, at the World Health Assembly, WHO Director-General Tedros said that the organization’s member states must prepare for future pandemics.

“When the next pandemic comes – and it will – we must be prepared to respond decisively, collectively and equitably. » declared the director during the 74th edition of the assembly.

Today at the WEF he said Covid-19 was the first disease X, but it was important to prepare for another pandemic. “There are unknown things that can happen, and whatever happens, it’s a question of when, not if, so “We need a placeholder for this, for diseases we don’t know exist.” » said Tedros.

Although some say that worrying about an illness that has not yet appeared can cause panic, the CEO says it is better to anticipate something that can happen, because it has happened several times and he Better to be prepared.

“We lost a lot of people. [durante el Covid] because we couldn’t handle them,” Tedros said at the global conference. “They could have been saved, but there was no room. There wasn’t enough oxygen. So how do you have a system that can expand when needed? »

This is why he urges countries to sign the pandemic treaty in order to have a common response on how to respond to a new epidemic. “The pandemic deal can bring together all the experience, all the challenges we have faced and all the solutions into one. » » said Tedros. “This agreement can help us better prepare for the future.”

Ghebreyesus said independent panels and experts were working on ways to respond collectively and that the deadline to sign the treaty was in May, reports Fox News.

Some preparedness responses could include an early warning system, organizing supply chains, and promoting research and development to test drugs. Primary health care should also be examined, given that rich countries have not fared well during Covid, encountering basic problems such as contact tracing.

Last year, the Biden administration was negotiating the global pandemic treaty. Republican Party critics have said such a deal would cede sovereignty to the WHO. “The World Health Organization’s pandemic treaty is very vague, encroaches on our sovereignty, and could be exploited to tell Americans what kind of health care they need in the event of a global pandemic,” said the Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn. he said at a press conference in May.

What could be the next disease X?

One virus that could be considered likely to cause a pandemic is the Nipah virus, which kills more than half of victims and for which there is no cure. For comparison, over the past four years, Covid-19, a disease with a mortality rate of less than 1%, has killed around 7 million people .

The World Health Organization highlights the Nipah virus and its close cousins ​​as some of your highest priority pathogens : With human mortality between 40 and 75%, Nipah is considered a serious public health problem.

The modern world is conducive to the proliferation of new viruses. First, the world is increasingly connected through globalization. Second, people are increasingly crowded into cities.

Third, millions of acres of natural habitat are destroyed each year, an important reason because massive habitat loss brings animals ever closer to humans, and “about three-quarters of emerging infectious diseases come from animals then they move from one species to another until, under certain circumstances, they can infect humans,” Bingham wrote in his book.

According to international studies, There is a 27.5% chance that a pandemic as deadly as Covid-19 will occur in the next decade, As viruses appear more frequently, a rapid rollout of vaccines is key to reducing deaths.

Climate change, increased international travel, population growth and the threat posed by zoonotic diseases all contribute to this risk, according to London-based Airfinity Ltd. But if effective vaccines are deployed 100 days after the discovery of a new pathogen, the probability of a deadly pandemic drops to 8.1%. according to company modeling.

In July 2021, a total of 65 expert scientists from 13 countries participated in updating a platform to identify zoonotic animal viruses that could “jump” and infect humans, just as did the Sars-CoV-2 virus.

The result was that Lassa, Ebola, Seoul, Nipah, Hepatitis E and Hanta are the viruses that could become the next pandemic. In addition, there are 887 viruses that represent a greater possibility of contagion to humans, 38 of them recognized as zoonotic viruses and the other 849 with zoonotic potential still unknown, which constitute a group of animal diseases transmitted to humans. man by contagion. directly with the sick animal.

Research on disease X is more latent than ever, November 18, 2022, WHO brought together around 300 scientists with the aim of examining and theorizing on the subject, as well as analyze the possible risks of pathogen X and determine the lines of action in the event of zoonosis.

For now, Disease X remains hypothetical, However, the WHO included it in its list, mentioning it as “a currently unknown pathogen that could cause a serious international epidemic.”