Where in Chile the next big earthquake could happen: Here’s what an expert says

It was 3:34 in the morning on February 27, 2010, and Chileans began to feel a new earthquake, one they were already used to. But soon, the movement began to gain a lot of strength The seconds started to seem longer and everyone already knew it was a different earthquake.

They lived the power of earthquake from Maule as they later called it, which Its magnitude was 8.8 degrees on the scale. Richter and which has been recorded as one of the greatest in modern history .

In all, 500 people died and more than 800,000 were injured or left homeless. .

The damage and material and emotional losses were significant, leading many to wonder whether such an event could happen again.

AND Although the science There is no clear answer since it is impossible to predict with certainty when, Yes, there are studies on models that can provide insight into the risk areas on where another major earthquake could hit the country .

“This does not mean that it will happen tomorrow,” begins to explain Luis Donoso, seismologist and academic in applied geophysics at the University of Desarrollo. The third . “However, The area with the greatest potential to have a magnitude close to M8.8 is Atacama. . Like the earthquake of 1922.

But the specialist does not speak of this possible prediction without recalling an “embarrassing” anecdote that science has experienced. Many scientists expected that in 2014, in Iquique, there would be a “super hyper megaseism” that would break Tocopilla on the border with Peru but the movement collapsed in the middle, leaving all theories in tatters.

“They encountered an earthquake of magnitude 8.2 and everyone expected a 9.4, 9.5, a beast, but in reality it was something small (compared to what was believed) ” In fact, since it was not so “broken”, an area north of Iquique, which is a little in Peruvian territory, between the rupture zone and Tocopilla, was left waiting for “a pair of earthquakes of eight points.” that, To date, they have not occurred.

This experience, according to Donoso, only shows that although there are models “Most likely it won’t be what was hoped for. “.

That said, and let’s get back to risk that Atacama will be the next area hit by a major earthquake according to the study Interseismic coupling, segmentation and mechanical behavior of the central Chilean subduction zoneFrench people Marianne Métois, Anne Socket and Christophe Vigny, Some models indicate a possible major breakout in the region. .

“We have an 8.4, it’s there, but we don’t know if everything will break or if it will break partly, between Chañaral and La Serena “, explains Donoso about the article, which clearly shows that the places mentioned constitute a rupture zone, that is, a point inside the Earth that breaks and generates an earthquake.

“When the entire area with potential is fractured, an earthquake of a magnitude associated with the size of that area is generated. This means that if it is a large area, it will be a large earthquake. On the other hand, when only a fraction of that area is fractured, the magnitude of the earthquake generated is less than the expected maximum,” he adds.

In this sense, the coupling, that is, the degree of locking of the plate and the force with which it can break, is maximum in Atacama, in the northern and southern zones of the 1922 break.

“This is a job for people who are on the frontier of knowledge. It is very difficult to find someone who has more experience in this field,” the specialist says.Can I determine where it breaks? Yes, where yes. But when? It’s totally beyond human limits “.

“No. And I don’t think he can do it either. “Donoso responds to The third . “The fundamental reason is that there Artificial intelligence searches for and associates patterns, but these patterns are phenomena that have a certain frequency . But When the frequency at the seismic level is not stable and shows variability over several years, it is no longer a trend. “, Explain.

To give an example, the seismologist recalls the great earthquakes in the central zone of Chile: in 1575, 1657, 1730, 1822, 1906 and 1985. At first glance, it seems that there is a trend, “when you do the numbers, you realize that the average is 70 years, but you can increase it by 20 more or subtract 20 less.

But what AI would do with that data is say that since the last one was in 1985, “we have to put 70 years, so the next big earthquake in Chile would be in 2045.”

Despite the potential of this technology, Donoso can’t help but remember a professor he had at university who always told an anecdote when the launch of programmable calculators was all the rage in the 1980s. The professor said that these devices “added up” very quickly, but so quickly that if it used to take me half an hour to make a mistake in a complex calculation, I now made the same mistake in two minutes.

“The only advantage is that I can make so many mistakes in half an hour that at some point I will find the solution, but the calculator will not solve my problem.”

This is the seismologist’s vision of AI applied to his field, and especially to the eternal uncertainty of being able to predict an earthquake with science: a calculator that only helps you make mistakes more quickly.

“According to AI, we should all be earthquakes already.”

Pedro Encina, the man behind the Santiago Nostálgico account where he keeps more than 17 thousand historical photographs, added a collection of the devastating effects of the 1922 earthquake and tsunami in the Atacama region.

“It is very likely that something similar will happen. I mean something in terms of physical magnitude, not in terms of the magnitude of the damage, but we will still have damage. ” warns the seismologist.

And perhaps, when there are earthquakes that are part of the daily life of Chileans, the risks that a stronger shock could bring are somewhat left aside, a sort of permanent state of denial.

“If people don’t know what happened, it’s hard for them to realize it, because disasters, in my experience, last a little less than a generation. ” says the expert, remembering his children, to whom he assures that most of their memories of the 2010 earthquake have already been erased.

But beyond being afraid, it’s about being prepared.

That this earthquake, felt at 3:34 in the morning, which seemed to be just one more, and which could not be predicted, should not be so devastating, as far as possible.