What is stratospheric warming, the “potentially strong” climate phenomenon that will arrive at the end of August

As early as the first weeks of July, the scientific world had already warned about sudden stratospheric warming (also known as CSE or SSW). This phenomenon caused a sudden increase in the temperature of Antarctica and, consequently, a change in the climate of the rest of the world.

And although this is an event that researchers are already well aware of, The strange thing is that it’s happening at this time of year.

NOW, A new “potentially strong” stratospheric warming is predicted for the end of August, which is starting to worry experts.

And the great consequence of extremely hot temperatures, as explained on the specialized page Weather zone the thing is There could be a disturbance of the polar vortex and, therefore, the climate of different countries in the southern hemisphere, such as Chile, could be affected.

What effects would this disruption have on the global climate and, in particular, on Chile?

This is the explanation for this particular phenomenon, originating in Antarctica.

“There are indications that another sudden episode of stratospheric warming could occur over Antarctica towards the end of August.” experts of Weather zonean Australian weather platform, .

This could “Increases the likelihood that the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex will continue to be disrupted through September.”

To understand what stratospheric warming is, you need to know that At the Earth’s north and south poles is what is called the “polar stratosphere,” a layer of the atmosphere located 30 to 40 kilometers above these regions.

In addition, the polar vortex …who is the one affected by this warming— It is “a vast area of ​​low pressure and cold air surrounding the Earth’s poles.” as explained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) .

This vortex is usually the cause of extreme cold waves in different countries around the world: “When we feel extremely cold air coming from the Arctic regions on the Earth’s surface, it is probably associated with the polar vortex,” they assured the organization.

And when he is disturbed, It is common for all the cold air trapped in Antarctica to suddenly be released and spread to other latitudes. reaching countries such as Chile, Argentina and Uruguay.

But how does stratospheric warming manage to disrupt the polar vortex?

In winter or spring, Sudden warming of the polar stratosphere can “disrupt” and weaken the vortex, releasing cold and thus affecting the behavior of weather conditions in the high and middle latitudes of the planet.

Under normal conditions, the polar vortex usually strengthens in winter (with low temperatures during the dark months) then, with the arrival of summer, the sun and warm air weaken it.

SO, When there is stratospheric warming, the polar vortex weakens abnormally, causing strange changes in the global climate.

This means, for countries in the southern hemisphere, that Intense cold waves and low pressure systems could “escape”, prolonging the low winter temperatures.

What worries the scientific world is that such sudden warmings are not generally common at the South Pole, unlike what happens at the North Pole, where this type of phenomenon is more common to observe.

According to researchers, it is possible that global warming is influencing its development, since unprecedented record high temperatures have been recorded in Antarctica, which would be the cause of these climatic phenomena.

So much so that in the last month alone, two stratospheric warming events have occurred: one in mid-July and another in early August.

However, according to climate models, It is very likely that “a third and potentially strong period of stratospheric warming could occur over Antarctica towards the end of August.”

Records predict that stratospheric air over East Antarctica will become 50°C warmer than average by the end of the month. This means that in Chile there would still be at least one or two cold spells before we start to feel the warmth of spring in late September.

And that’s it, Due to Chile’s proximity to Antarctica, it is possible that we will perceive the effects of this phenomenon more quickly and more intensely than other countries on the continent. The most affected areas of the country would be the south and the south-central region.

According to the climate specialist platform, Weathered This phenomenon could generate a “chain reaction” and cause the Antarctic Oscillation – also known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – to go into negative phase.

This change would impact different countries in the southern hemisphere, such as Chile, Argentina and Uruguay:

• Cold air supplies of polar origin and low pressure systems in the south and south-central region named countries. In addition, these last days of August could end with significant negative temperature anomalies, that is, colder days.
• In Patagonia they could increase the amount and intensity of precipitation and snow.
• They can register stronger winds in southern and central Argentina and Chile.
• The spring in these countries could have a increased precipitation.