Princeton University simulator showing a nuclear attack between Russia and NATO

The tensions between Russia and the countries that make up the NATO have gradually increased since the invasion launched by the Kremlin in Ukraine .

Since the start of the Russian offensive on February 24, 2022, The Alliance has supported the nation of President Volodymyr Zelensky through economic aid and armament programs.

Faced with this scenario – which has been going on for more than two years – President Vladimir Putin warned that Western support for Ukraine could lead to escalation in the conflict.

In February 2024, he even declared before Parliament in his annual speech that “the opponents of Russia you have to remember that we have arm able to achieve objectives on their territory “.

In this sense, he stressed that some measures that harm the Kremlin’s operations and interests could mean “a conflict with nuclear weapons and, consequently, the destruction of civilization” .

This is not the only case in which Russian authorities are threatening to the possibility of a bigger war .

In fact, after Ukrainian forces began their own cross-border military incursion on August 6, Moscow stressed that its Western allies They are “playing with fire” .

This was stated at a press conference on August 27 by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who alert USA that a possible third world war would not be limited to just Europe .

In this way he suggested that The North American country would also be involved .

At the same press briefing, Lavrov confirmed that Russia ‘clarifies’ its nuclear doctrine referring to the criteria for deploying the use of weapons of this type.

But the possibility of nuclear attacks developing between these factions was studied by analysts long before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. and the subsequent response of its troops in the Russian region of Kursk.

The program Science and Global Security (SGS) from Princeton University presented in 2019 a simulation that describes what a nuclear attack between Russia and NATO would look like .

This is called Plan A. a project which, as they explain, is motivated by “the need to highlight the potentially catastrophic consequences” of what this situation would be.

To develop the audiovisual piece, they used large datasets on the nuclear weapons they possess, their performance and possible targets .

So they predicted aspects such as which weapons would go to which positions, in what order and how the evolution would occur of combat.

Expert analysis estimates that There would be more than 90 million dead and injured in the first hours.

The numbers they got were determined using the data model NUKE CARD created by the historian specializing in this subject, Alex Wellerstein, who also participated in this simulation.

Academics said that Their death estimates match those caused by nuclear explosions .

So the numbers could increase significantly if certain factors are taken into account such as deaths caused by radioactive fallout or other long-term effects.

The production runs just over four minutes and, after showing a preview, Start with the following text :

“The simulation begins in the context of a conventional conflict. Hoping to stop the US and NATO advance, Russia launches a nuclear warning shot from a base near the city of Kaliningrad. NATO retaliates with a single tactical nuclear airstrike.

Below you see a representation of this first crossing .

“When the nuclear threshold is exceeded, The fighting escalates into a tactical nuclear war in Europe. . Russia sends 300 nuclear warheads via aircraft and short-range missiles to attack NATO bases and advancing troops. “NATO responds with about 180 nuclear warheads via aircraft.”

Just this exchange, according to plan A, would generate 2.6 million immediate victims within about three hours.

Then, with much of Europe destroyed, NATO to launch 600-warhead nuclear offensive from US land-based and submarine missile systems .

These would be directed against Russian nuclear forces .

“Before losing its weapons systems, Russia warns responding with missiles launched from silos, mobile road vehicles and submarines.

This process would cause 3.4 million immediate victims. of the order of approximately 45 minutes.

According to the SGS program simulation, this is when the most critical point would be unleashed .

“In order to prevent the reestablishment of the other side, Russia and NATO are each targeting the other’s 30 most populous cities and economic centers, using between 5 and 10 nuclear warheads in each city. depending on the population size.

It would leave in about 45 minutes 85.3 million immediate victims .

The Plan A estimates ensure in their decomposition that All these cross attacks would together cause 34.1 million deaths and 57.4 million injuries. .

In short, the above would mean approximately 91.5 million people directly affected by nuclear exchanges not to mention the potential long-term effects.

It should not be forgotten that Plan A presents approximations based on a hypothetical scenario .

Similarly, the project was initially presented in 2019, so It does not take into account issues such as what happened after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began or the strategic alliances that were formed. since this event.