Theories about the beeper explosions in Lebanon

It was last Tuesday, September 17, around 3:30 p.m. (local time), when thousands of beeps used by activists Hezbollah exploded almost simultaneously in different parts of Lebanon .

The attack left some 2,800 people injured, according to local authorities, while at least 12 deaths have been recorded .

From the militant group they blamed Israel to be behind the event.

However, from the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu They neither denied nor confirmed being responsible for the operation. .

“This treacherous and criminal enemy will undoubtedly receive his just punishment for this culpable aggression, whether he expects it or not.” “Hezbollah warned in a statement, in which it accused Israel of being “fully responsible for this criminal aggression which also targeted civilians.”

The next day, Wednesday September 18, There was a second series of explosions that killed at least 20 people and injured about 450. which they said also included radios and fingerprint scanning devices.

All this happens in the middle of a scenario in which Israeli troops and Hezbollah forces are constantly clashing on the Lebanese border. since Hamas carried out its surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

This latest development has also led the Israeli military to develop ongoing attacks in the Gaza Strip .

Talks aimed at reaching an agreement and ending the fighting have not progressed and, on the contrary, the situation has worsened .

Regarding what happened in Lebanon, Pagers (also called pagers or pagers) are wireless devices that allow you to send and receive messages. .

Although over time they have been replaced by mobile phones, There are still organizations that occupy them. One of them is Hezbollah. .

According to information retrieved by the The Wall Street Journal the devices in question They were part of a shipment the group had recently received .

And although Israeli forces have sophisticated methods for spying on and tracking members of opposition organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah, The attack they are now accused of has unprecedented scale and scope .

Deputy Director of the International Security Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (SCRS), Emily Harding, posed in front of the Washington Post that Israeli agents likely intercepted the beeps somewhere in the supply chain before Hezbollah militants received them.

This way, It is assumed that they could have been manipulated to explode. added the representative of the US-based think tank.

This theory coincides with the analysis of other specialists .

The director of the arms research company Armament Research Services NR Jenzen-Jones, commented on his account X (ex Twitter) that Videos he saw suggest that “explosive devices were embedded” in the pagers. .

“The scales pose a complex supply chain attack instead of a scenario where devices would be intercepted and modified in transit,” he said in a post on the social network.

The president of the national security think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator Dmitri Alperovitch told the aforementioned media that “It appears to be perhaps the most extensive physical supply chain attack in history.” .

The specialist of Middle East Institute (IEDM), Charles Lister, said in a post by X that “when you watch the video you can see that It wasn’t just a matter of forcing the lithium batteries to activate. “.

“It is almost certain that a small plastic explosive was hidden next to the battery to detonate it remotely.” he stressed.

List also believes that Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, has “infiltrated the supply chain” .

Likewise, security expert and former CIA analyst Mike DiMino wrote in X that What happened in Lebanon is “intelligence work at its best” .

“Let it be posing as a supplier or integrating the handled equipment directly into Hezbollah’s supply chain Thanks to their vulnerabilities (perhaps a transport truck or a commercial ship), they managed to distribute them within the organization.

DiMino also pointed out that “An operation of this magnitude requires months, even years, to be properly orchestrated” .

Some photographic records taken from the devices that exploded display the word “Gold” and the model number “AR-9” .

A post review ensures that the design seen in the images corresponds to that of the “AR-924” pagers produced by Gold Apollo Co., a company based in Taiwan which is dedicated to the manufacture of these devices.

The company shared a statement on Wednesday, September 18, in which They assured that they had not manufactured the models that were allegedly used in the attack. .

They stated that were “entirely managed” by a company called BAC in Budapest, which was authorized to use the brand recorded Gold Apollo in some areas.

Taiwan’s Ministry of Economy shared a statement confirming that Contact was made with the company in his country, which “questioned whether the product really belonged to him after reviewing media reports and images.” and they found that the pager could have been tampered with after it was exported.

The data shared by the official body details that Gold Apollo exported approximately 260,000 beepers from 2022 to August 2024 .

Of this number, about 41,000 correspond to this last year .

According to the Taiwanese ministry, Most of them were exported to Europe and the United States, while there is no record of direct exports to Lebanon. .

However, experts in this field told the aforementioned media: This does not exclude that the shipments were made through a third party company. .

Hezbollah militants have turned to pagers to communicate in recent months because They feared that Israeli forces could locate their fighters through their cell phones. reported the agency Reuters in July.

In this sense, Harding told the Post that these devices They usually don’t have cameras or microphones They therefore promise to be useful in avoiding risks in terms of surveillance.

Among the components of these devices are: lithium-ion batteries, which can explode or catch fire if they get too hot or come into direct contact with certain metals explained specialists to the aforementioned American newspaper.

However, like Lister, they pointed out that It is unlikely that these explosions caused the explosions seen in Lebanon. .

The leading expert on Meier Fire Investigation Richard Meier said they are similar in size to a traditional AA battery and, If overheated, they can reach 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit .

He noted that the pagers They are generally designed to ventilate and control their temperature in order to avoid consequences or accidents.

There are also some that rely on internal software to manage their heat, so according to Meier, It is possible to tamper with these devices so that they overheat and eventually explode. .

The fact is that the explosions observed in Lebanon were instantaneous. show the archives.

On certain occasions, Overheated lithium batteries can explode, but there are cases where they catch fire or react with decomposing materials in the device.

Security expert and vice president of research and development at Hunter Strategy Jake Williams told the Post: “I’ve seen enough lithium battery fires to know that what we see in the published videos is not consistent with a battery fire “.

“The electrochemistry of cheap batteries simply does not allow them all to explode in a very short period of time, as has been observed” he added.

Williams agrees with other experts that It is highly likely that explosive materials were placed inside the pagers. .