The former president and current vice president are in a tight race to lead the White House in the next legislature. That’s what the polls say.
Two weeks left until presidential elections of USA example in which the former president Donald Trump and the current vice-president Kamala Harris will compete to carry out its functions during the next period.
The electoral vote will take place on November 5 and Whoever wins the elections will succeed the president Joe Biden who was in the race until July 21, when he dropped his candidacy to support Harris’ nomination instead.
The standard bearer of the Republican Party accompanies J.D. Vance (Ohio senator) as the vice-presidential candidate, while the Democratic Party nominee goes with Tim Walz (Governor of Minnesota) as a vice-presidential candidate.
Amid expectations for votes from the North American country, the average of national surveys prepared by ABC News/538 present some insights into the scenario of the 2024 electoral process .
What the polls say about the US elections
Data updated through October 22 reflects that Kamala Harris leads with around 48% .
For his part, Donald Trump appears with 46% .
Even though Kamala Harris’s support percentage is higher than Donald Trump’s, These numbers translate into a technical tie they therefore do not allow immediate conclusions to be drawn about who will triumph in the elections.
Republican pollster and polling company president North Star Opinion Research Whit Ayres, told BBC that “the campaign for the presidential election is tied at the national level” .
In this sense, he added that “surveys are very effective in giving us an overall idea, but they are not precise enough to distinguish one or two points throughout an entire country. »
Added to this advantage is the fact that These polls consider the voting intention of citizens .
However, In the United States, the presidential election is not defined by direct voting .
How are presidential elections defined in the United States?
In general terms, Each state in this North American country has a certain number of electoral votes, calculated based on the size of its population. .
This is why some have more voice than others.
For exampleCalifornia, which is ranked as the most populous state, has a total of 54 .
On the other hand, others, among the less populated, like North Dakota or Vermont have three each .
Although most states and the District of Columbia award all their votes to the candidate with the majority, there are exceptions such as Maine and Nebraska. which distributes them proportionally.
There are 538 electoral votes in total .
And, for a candidate to win, requires a majority of 270 .
The Electoral College determines the winner of the presidential race.
In previous processes There have been cases where a candidate gets more preferences in the popular vote, but still loses the elections.
The most recent was in 2016, when Democratic Rep. Hillary Clinton lost the election to Donald Trump, despite receiving almost three million more votes. than the Republican.
What are the swing states of the United States and why are they essential in presidential elections?
In most states in the United States There are voting methods in which a specific party is favored. .
Surveys predict these trends will continue through 2024. The Democratic Party is expected to have 21 states, totaling about 230 votes. of the Electoral College.
The Republican Party, for its part, stands out in 23 states with a total of 215 votes. .
That’s when the calls appear pendulum states, that is to say those in which their support tends to change .
For these elections there are seven which together represent 93 votes of the Electoral College.
It is about Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .
Whit Ayres highlighted the BBC that “The election will be decided by whoever wins the majority of the 93 electoral votes in these seven key states” .
According to the average of surveys prepared by ABC News/538, The presidential race in these states also has minimal differences which vary between one and two percentage points.
Donald Trump rises in three : North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
Kamala Harris beats him by four : Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan.
In the words Ayres told the aforementioned media outlets, “the race is essentially tied in these seven contested states,” so “it’s very difficult to say at this stage which candidate will obtain the majority of these 93 electoral votes “.
The presidential candidates They only had one debate between them which took place on September 10.
A survey prepared by the company SSRS For cnn took into account the opinion of about 600 people and ensured that 63% of registered voters who watched the debate said Kamala Harris performed better against Donald Trump, who obtained 37%.
Before the instance is made, The participants were divided 50% and 50% between the two candidates .
Presidential elections in the United States are scheduled next November 5, 2024 .
Source: Latercera
I am David Jack and I have been working in the news industry for over 10 years. As an experienced journalist, I specialize in covering sports news with a focus on golf. My articles have been published by some of the most respected publications in the world including The New York Times and Sports Illustrated.
