A “second trade war” and a new “cold war”: what unites and separates Xi Jinping and Donald Trump

In 2017, Xi Jinping President of China, granted the then President of the United States, Donald Trump an honor that has only been bestowed on a few leaders: a walk in the Forbidden City, where Chinese emperors lived for almost 500 years.

They toured the Imperial Quarters and ate kung pao chicken together for dinner, while Trump showed her a video of his granddaughter singing a Chinese song.

Despite the ever-present tensions between the two countries, it appears that they have reached an amicable agreement. But Two years later, the Covid-19 pandemic devastated everything: Trump took it upon himself to emphasize that it was a “Chinese virus” blamed Beijing for the outbreak and sparked a deep trade war with increased tariffs.

NOW, The re-elected president of the United States promised that, upon his return to the White House, he would continue to fight to compete with the Asian giant.

He announced a 60% customs duty on all goods imported from the country, the creation of regulations limiting U.S. investment in China and a plan to eliminate the importation of essential goods in four years.

The Chinese view Trump’s return with uncertainty, but so do the Americans. And it is likely that the Republican president will encounter a stronger Xi Jinping, who has asserted himself strongly in recent years.

consulted by BBC World a 74-year-old Chinese retiree – who preferred not to reveal his real name – said: For many Chinese, “Trump is a funny character.”

So much so that memes of the president-elect dancing are circulating on social media across the country.

And even if it makes you laugh a lot, There are those who worry about their “unpredictable” personality.

Mike Waltz the new US national security adviser, wrote that it is important for the United States to end the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. focus on the most important issue: “Countering the Chinese Communist Party’s biggest threat.”

Under the government of Joe Biden, the Chinese president had already warned against legislative and tariff bans, which “Containing China is reckless, unacceptable and doomed to failure. »

“We must not wage a new cold war. “You can’t win” said the Chinese president.

But China would have “prepared” for Trump’s return. According to Yu Jie, China researcher at Chatham House , His victory in the presidential elections “is not a surprise” for Asians.

Of course, warned the expert, during a conversation with the BBC, that the world should expect “checkered relationships to develop.”

With Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, It is very likely that Trump’s new term’s approach will be “tougher and tougher on China” said Lyle Morris, Asia Society China Analysis Center At BBC.

“Even if Trump sees his personal relationship with Xi Jinping as an avenue for negotiation, he “He will rely on Waltz and Rubio to craft a more aggressive and inflexible policy toward China.”

One of the differences that would justify this stricter strategy is There is concern that China has a larger nuclear arsenal than many think. This could trigger not only a trade war, but also a nuclear war which could have repercussions on the stability of the world.

There is also the question of Taiwan, a territory where China has increased threats of invasion to control it. And although Trump did not explicitly answer that he would defend Taiwan, experts expect it to happen that way.

In fact, his first government was the one that sold the most weapons to Taiwan and, by law, is obliged to exchange defensive weapons with the island.

Donald Trump has repeatedly declared his admiration for Xi Jinping. In 2020, he mentioned that “they loved each other” and, in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, he assured that they had “a very strong relationship”.

For his part, Xi barely talks about Trump.

However, both have a very similar vision of what they want for their country: Xi speaks of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and Trump of “making America great again.”

To prevent the increase in customs duties and other bans established by Trump from affecting them too much, China prepared and “began to diversify its sources of agricultural imports (notably from Brazil, Argentina and Russia).”

It has also “increased the volume of its exports to countries that are not allies of the United States,” Yu Jie said.

However, The Asian giant has another card up its sleeve: the presence of tycoon Elon Musk to the government, then your Tesla company depends on China for its production . As explained BBC World, about half of its electric cars are made in Beijing.

But does Musk have enough influence to “control” Trump’s trade strategy with China?

This is the question that experts and Chinese authorities are asking about a scenario that will only be known when he assumes the presidency, on January 20, 2025.