Conditions for Max Verstappen’s early title in Japan

Max Verstappen could have secured the league title in Singapore at the beginning of last weekend, but Sergio Perez’s victory and Charles Leclerc’s second place kept the fight going.

With five stages before the end of the season, Max is respectively 104 and 106 points ahead of the closest pursuers, Leclerc and Perez. If his lead expands to 112 points over the nearest pursuer on Sunday after the race in Suzuka, Verstappen will guarantee himself the title ahead of schedule.

To secure the title on Suzuka, Max must win the race by driving the full distance and setting the best lap. In this case, Verstappen becomes champion, regardless of the results of the opponents.

For any other result, a number of conditions must be met in order to win the title. For example, if Verstappen wins but doesn’t show the best lap, and Leclerc finishes second, then even without the best lap, Charles still has a mathematical chance of winning. Theoretically, Max can win the title even if he finishes sixth with certain results from his opponents.

Max Verstappen becomes champion at Suzuka ahead of schedule if full points are awarded for the race and one of the following conditions is met:

Verstappen wins and shows best lap – the results of opponents are not important;

Verstappen wins and doesn’t show the best lap – Leclerc finishes third or lower, Perez second or lower;

Verstappen finishes second and sets best lap – Leclerc finishes fifth or lower, Perez fourth or lower;

Verstappen finishes second and misses best lap – Leclerc finishes fifth or lower with no best lap, or finishes sixth or lower but with best lap. Pérez finishes fourth or lower with no best lap, or fifth or lower with best lap;

Verstappen finishes third and sets best lap – Leclerc finishes sixth or lower, Perez fifth or lower;

Verstappen finishes third and misses best lap – Leclerc finishes seventh or lower, Perez sixth or lower;

Verstappen finishes fourth and sets the best lap – Leclerc finishes eighth or lower, Perez seventh or lower;

Verstappen finishes fourth and misses best lap – Leclerc finishes 8th or lower with no best lap, or ninth or lower with best lap. Pérez finishes seventh without best lap, or eighth or lower with best lap;

Verstappen finishes fifth and sets best lap – Leclerc finishes ninth or lower, Perez eighth or lower;

Verstappen finishes fifth and misses best lap – Leclerc finishes ninth or lower with no best lap, or tenth or lower with best lap. Pérez finishes eighth or lower with no best lap, or ninth or lower with best lap;

Verstappen finishes sixth and sets best lap – Leclerc finishes 10th or lower, Pérez ninth or lower;

Verstappen finishes sixth and misses best lap – Leclerc finishes eleventh or lower. Pérez finishes ninth or lower without a best lap, or tenth or lower with a best lap.

However, there may be options where full points are not awarded for the race. From this season the following rules apply:

If the race distance was two full circles but less than 25% of the planned distance, only the first five points will earn according to the 6-4-3-2-1 system;

If the race lasted 25% to 50% of the distance, points are awarded according to the system 13-10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1;

If the race lasted 50% to 75% of the distance, points will be awarded according to the system 19-14-12-9-8-6-5-3-2-1.

If points are played in Suzuka according to one of these three systems, Verstappen’s chance of securing the title in Suzuka is smaller. In a three-quarter situation, Max has to finish in the top five to win the title. If Verstappen wins in this scenario and sets the best lap, Leclerc’s only chance to compete for the title is to finish second.

If half points are awarded, Verstappen wins the title if he finishes on the podium. If he wins the race, Max will need Leclerc to finish outside the top three.

And if a quarter or no points are awarded for the race in Suzuka, Max Verstappen will win the title in Japan no earlier than planned.

In Japan, Max Verstappen could become only the third driver in history to guarantee championship victory four races before the end of the season. Previously, only Michael Schumacher succeeded in 2001 and 2004 and Sebastian Vettel in 2011.