Does Mick Schumacher have a chance to return in 2024?

The journalists of the Austrian magazine Motorsport Magazin wondered if Mick Schumacher would have a chance to sign a contract with one of the Formula 1 teams and return behind the wheel in 2024?

It is clear that there is no ready answer yet, but an attempt can be made to analyze the market and possible changes in it compared to the coming year. However, a quick look at the situation allows us to conclude that there will be few changes in the teams. Perhaps that is why there are practically no rumors about possible transitions of riders during the summer break.

The compositions of five teams remain unchanged.

Red Bull Races: Many would like to get behind the wheel of this team’s car, but the chance that a vacancy will arise is negligibly small. Max Verstappen’s contract has been extended until 2028 and Sergio Perez’s position is still stronger than his results suggest. In addition, his contract formally expires at the end of 2024 and he enjoys respect and support in the team.

Ferrari: Lately there have been rumors about the contracts of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, but so far one thing is certain: both will continue to play for the Scuderia next year.

Leclerc’s obligations to the team expire at the end of 2024 and the assumption that Ferrari has already extended his contract is incorrect. At least that is what the Austrian edition claims.

Also, don’t believe the rumors that Sainz has reportedly already signed some preliminary agreements with Audi.

Alps: Esteban Okon’s contract is calculated until the end of next year, but with Pierre Gasly the situation is less certain, but in 2024 he will continue to play for the Renault factory team. His contract is only known to be of a multi-year nature, but the countdown has only begun this year. Accordingly, he will remain Ocon’s partner for at least one more season.

McLaren: Oscar Piastri’s situation is the same as Gasly’s: although the length of his contract has never been officially named, he will continue to play for the Woking side in 2024. It is known that Mark Webber, his manager, agreed to a long-term partnership of his protege with McLaren, and this period began only in 2023. And Lando Norris extended the contract until the end of 2025 in February 2022.

Aston Martin: One of the reasons why Fernando Alonso left Alpine was that they only offered him a one-year contract. Aston Martin was happy to enter into a long-term relationship with the two-time world champion and this period did not begin until 2023.

The situation with his partner Lance Stroll is simple and complicated at the same time. The difficulty is that the team has never announced the length of his contract, but on the other hand everything is simplified by the fact that he is the son of the owner of Aston Martin.

Lineups have not been confirmed for five teams

Mercedes: Everything indicates that the composition of the team will not change. Lewis Hamilton and George Russell will continue to drive her cars next year. Russell’s contract is only known as signing a multi-year contract with Mercedes in 2022, but there are also rumors that the team decided to exercise an option, suggesting George’s commitments to it have been extended through 2025.

Hamilton’s contract expires at the end of this season, but apparently the parties are willing to continue cooperation and it is only a matter of legal formalities.

Chance that the composition does not change: 95%

Alfa Romeo/Sauber: Valtteri Bottas has a multi-year contract with the Swiss team, but it is rumored to expire at the end of 2024. Guanyu Zhou’s contract is drawn up according to the formula 1 year + 1 year, ie an option for the 2023 season was assumed, which Hinwil has already exercised. Given that the Chinese rider looks quite confident against the background of a more experienced partner, he has a good chance of staying in the team for another season.

Chance that the composition does not change: 85%

Haas F1: Most likely, the extension of the contract with Niko Hulkenberg is no more than a formality. On the one hand, his current agreements with the US team have been drawn up for one year, on the other hand, everything indicates that the parties will continue cooperation.

Guenther Steiner, head of Haas, said before the summer break that he wanted to keep the squad unchanged. However, Kevin Magnussen hasn’t been very convincing lately, so it’s better not to jump to conclusions.

Chance that the composition does not change: 80%

Alpha Tauri: In 2024, the team faces major changes. In sports terms, it should become more independent, in technical terms, on the contrary, its cars will become even more similar to the Red Bull Racing chassis.

But the question is, what will the composition be? Daniel Ricciardo seems like the perfect choice and two Grands Prix with AlphaTauri prove it, but would he be willing to stay with the team for another full season?

After all, he dreams of returning to Red Bull Racing, and there the vacancy may not appear until 2025. The position of his partner, Yuki Tsunoda, is quite strong thanks to connections with Honda. In addition, Red Bull does not yet have any ready-made candidates that could successfully replace it.

Chance that the composition does not change: 80%

williams: It is clear that Alex Albon will stay with the team as he has signed a multi-year contract this year. In addition, it performs very well. With his young partner, Logan Sargent, everything is more complicated, because he has not yet shown himself. However, Williams has US owners and Sargent has a US passport, and there don’t seem to be any bright contenders for a spot on the team.

Chance that the composition does not change: 75%

Against this background, Mick Schumacher’s chances of returning to the starting field do not seem great. He currently works in a Mercedes simulator, serves as a reserve driver and spent the summer doing a Pirelli tire test in a W14 combat vehicle.

But with Brackley’s team likely to remain unchanged, it remains to be seen that Mick will have the chance to become Alex Albon’s team-mate at Williams under the most fortunate of circumstances. Firstly, the Grove-built cars are fitted with bespoke Mercedes engines and secondly, James Vowles, who has close ties to Toto Wolff, has now become the head of Williams.

But whether it will work, and whether Williams wants to say goodbye to Sargent, is another question.

It seems that Sauber is interested in Schumacher and the Audi era has not arrived yet. A return to Haas F1 is out of the question. The option with AlphaTauri therefore remains. From a purely theoretical point of view, the name Mika is quite attractive to potential sponsors, and he also has two seasons of experience in Formula 1.

Peter Bayer, who took over as CEO of AlphaTauri in April, emphasized: “Ultimately, all decisions are made by Helmut Marko.” At the same time, it is known that Marco is not among Mick’s fans.

In general, the chance that Mick will return to Formula 1 next year is barely higher than 10%.

It remains to add that promising young riders don’t get too many chances to make their debut in the World Championship either. Neither Theo Purcher, F2 leader, nor Frederic Vesti, nor Ayumu Iwasa, nor Jack Doohan, nor Victor Martin give the impression of brilliant talents, as Charles Leclerc or George Russell were in their day.

Also worth mentioning is Liam Lawson, the most promising driver in Red Bull’s youth program, who is currently performing well in Japanese Super Formula. Formally he is regarded as a reserve driver for Red Bull Racing, but when the question arose to replace Nick de Vries, it was not him, but Daniel Ricciardo who was Yuki Tsunoda’s new partner.

Alex Palou, the leader of the IndyCar drivers’ standings, is officially McLaren’s reserve driver and has driven the team’s cars numerous times. But no vacancies are expected in his composition and the Spaniard has not yet received proposals from other teams.