Conditions for Max Verstappen to win the championship

Max Verstappen has nine victories in fourteen races after the Belgian Grand Prix and in the individual classification his lead over the closest pursuer, Sergio Perez, is 93 points. If something unpredictable doesn’t happen at the end of the season, Max Verstappen guarantees himself the title of world champion.

But how quickly does Max become unreachable for rivals? In Belgium, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff suggested that Verstappen would win the title in Europe, but this is actually mathematically impossible. Suppose Max wins the races at Zandvoort and Monza, shows the best laps and Sergio Perez and Charles Leclerc do not earn points.

In this case, Verstappen breaks away with 52 points and increases his lead over Perez in the individual classification to 145 points, while 164 points can be earned in the other six Grands Prix (taking into account the sprint in Brazil). Max will not become champion in Singapore either – it is much more likely that Verstappen will guarantee himself a title in a stage in Suzuka or Austin.

After the Belgian Grand Prix because of Sergio Perez, Max’s closest pursuer, 191 points. If Perez earns all points available to him in the remaining Grand Prix, he can score a maximum of 407 points. Verstappen now has 284 points, which means he needs to earn 123 more points to become mathematically inaccessible to opponents.

The table below shows how many points Max Verstappen must be ahead of the nearest competitor after each race to guarantee the title in 2022.