Campi Flegrei and “seismic crisis”: Italy on alert facing a possible “supervolcano” eruption

A magnitude 4.2 earthquake on September 27 caused a tremor in the port town of Pozzuoli, populated by 77,000 inhabitants, about 13 kilometers from the Italian city of Naples. This is the most powerful earthquake in 40 years to shake the Campi Flegrei volcanic field. But it is only part of a series of 2,500 earthquakes recorded since August in the region, raising fears that what scientists call a “seismic crisis” is underway for the first time since the early 1980s. In fact, some fear that these seismic movements could lead to the eruption of a “supervolcano” that would force a mass evacuation.

The large earthquake, which did not cause serious structural damage, and the smaller ones since August, have caused tension among residents like Annamaria Scardi, mother of two teenagers. “Even these small earthquakes scare us,” he told Reuters. “We are worried because we are (supposed to) flee. But where are we going ? Where to go ? This is the situation. “We are at the limit.”

Experts say there is no imminent threat of an eruption, but they fear geophysical activity could cause the ground to rise and fall, which could destabilize buildings.

At Campi Flegrei, as at Yellowstone and other supervolcanoes around the world, the likelihood of a catastrophic eruption is low but not zero, said Alessandro Iannace, a geology professor at the Federico II University of Naples, speaking to the Wall Street Journal. “The difference is that in Yellowstone, if you think an eruption is coming, you can send tourists home and close the park for four years,” Iannace said. “You can’t do that with Campi Flegrei. “There are too many people there.”

This 207 square kilometer depression is home to more than a dozen cone volcanoes, several crater lakes and half a million people. 800,000 other people live on the verge of depression, details the American newspaper. According to NBC News, the last eruption of the Campi Flegrei took place in 1538.

The Campi Flegrei, northwest of Naples, are an area of ​​volcanic depression, formed following successive eruptions. One of them, which occurred 40,000 years ago, was one of the most powerful catastrophes on the planet and even affected the global climate. According to some researchers, this could have led to the extinction of Neanderthals. Remnants of the magma expelled during this eruption have been discovered in Greenland, about 4,500 kilometers away.

At the other end of the Bay of Naples is Pompeii, one of southern Italy’s great tourist attractions, famous for its ruins preserved beneath volcanic ash. In Pompeii, thousands of people died due to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD.

The Campi Flegrei are home to a volcano much larger than Vesuvius. Some speak of a “supervolcano”, others of the “next Vesuvius”. Although experts have not found a volcanic cone on the ground through which lava could flow outward, if it were to erupt with force, it could kill millions of people and destroy part of the world. ‘Italy.

The geological history of the caldera (which remains when magma empties after an eruption) reveals that over the past 15,000 years there have been more than 70 eruptions that have formed cones, craters and lakes, like Lake Avernus.

The epicenter of the recent tremors was in the Campi Flegrei itself. Thousands of small earthquakes have been recorded in the region since 2019, but their frequency and intensity have increased with each passing year. This has raised fears of a possible eruption in the near future.

The Italian Government’s Civil Protection Directorate says that seismic activity is currently a more urgent problem than a volcanic eruption, while recalling that no damage has been reported. Experts warn that more tremors could occur in the coming days.

Experts suggest the threat of volcanic activity comes from a geological phenomenon called bradysism, common in the region. It is the rise or fall of the ground due to the pressure of the magma below.

The early 1980s also saw an increase in earthquakes in the region, without a volcanic eruption following them. So far, no evidence of magma rising has been observed.

The authorities’ evacuation plans include identifying exit routes from the Campi Flegrei. Residents say the roads, which are often clogged with traffic on normal days, are too small to withstand the crush of a large-scale evacuation. Nello Musumeci, civil protection minister, said any evacuations would only take place in cases of “extreme necessity”, The Guardian reported.

When a similar crisis occurred four decades ago, it lasted several years and forced the temporary evacuation of 40,000 people from Pozzuoli, known as the hometown of actress Sophia Loren.