The 3 possible scenarios in Venezuela after the triumph of Maduro and the rejection of the different governments

For several hours, the tension was felt Venezuela and the rest of the world. Venezuelans went to the polls to define their leader for the next six years, with the “certainty” that Nicolás Maduro – in power since 2013 – would respect the decision taken by the majority.

But once the polling stations were closed, several hours passed without anyone knowing anything about the vote count, until later, around midnight, the results were announced: According to the National Electoral Council (CNE), Nicolás Maduro won with 51.20% and his opponent Edmundo González came second with 44.2%.

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was categorical and assured that No one in the Venezuelan opposition recognizes Maduro’s victory. They say it was a fraud and that the elected president was González.

And that’s it Lack of transparency casts doubt on the results. President Gabriel Boric, among other leaders, questioned the results, particularly because only 40% of the minutes were released.

What could happen now? BBC World analysis three possible scenarios that could occur in Venezuela, after the questioned triumph of Chavism and Nicolas Maduro.

Opposition leader María Corina Machado assured that They will fight “to the end” to show the truth about what happened on July 28, during the elections in Venezuela. Opinion polls had predicted that Edmundo González would be the winner, but the results were different, generating deep discontent in several sectors of the country.

Since then, The sound of pots and pans echoes in different cities of Venezuela in protest since a large part of the population is convinced that there was electoral fraud.

Therefore, as established by the BBC, Political analysts expect a widespread period of protests.

Political scientist Eduardo Valero, professor of political studies at the Central University of Venezuela he told the media that foresees “popular discontent and repression by the authorities.”

“The question is whether the government is prepared to bear the costs of further repression. Will you bear the cost of imprisoning those who decide not to respect the results?

For the expert, The intensity of the protests will depend directly on the reactions of the opposition. In other words, if Machado and González call for a massive outing on the streets, we could be facing a scenario of protests and repression on the part of Maduro.

Maduro had promised to respect the election results, something world leaders had asked of him before election day.

Even, Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, told reporters that Maduro must understand that “when you win, you stay. When you lose, you leave.” “I was frightened by Maduro’s comments that Venezuela could face a bloodbath if it lost.”

But now, the CNE results having been “validated”, Many presidents, even from left-wing governments, question the veracity of the data.

“The Maduro regime must understand that the results it publishes are difficult to believe” wrote President Gabriel Boric. “From Chile, we will not recognize any result that is not verifiable.”

Given this, Valero expects that “The majority of Latin American leaders unite against Maduro, with Lula and Gustavo Petro (president of Colombia) as interlocutors” who seem to have the ability to communicate with him.

Moreover, before the electionsOfficials from Joe Biden’s US government have assured that the sanctions they have against Venezuela could be “relieved” if the Venezuelan president holds a fair vote. and respected the results.

But now, with what happened last Sunday, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, said he had “serious concerns that the results announced do not reflect the will or votes of the Venezuelan people (…). “The international community is following the situation very closely and will respond accordingly.”

In other words, it is likely that if the alleged fraud is proven, the United States will take action and, perhaps, more severe sanctions than those it has already imposed so far.

In Chile, it is estimated that nearly 800,000 Venezuelans have arrived in recent years. And, according to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) It is estimated that 7.7 million Venezuelans have emigrated to different countries in search of a better quality of life.

And the economic crisis in Venezuela has plunged millions of families into poverty.

In this sense, as the elections approach, Several Venezuelans, hoping that the situation will change, have expressed on social networks their intention to return to their country. All this, in case the candidate opposed to Maduro wins.

However, After the victory of the Chavista candidate, experts fear that the wave of migration will intensify again.

According to a survey conducted by the Megalize sounder published in April44.6% of the Venezuelan population is considering emigrating if President Nicolas Maduro remains in office for a third term.

Furthermore, a recent survey of ORC Consultants which measures political risk, found that More than 18% of respondents plan to emigrate before the end of the year, after Maduro’s victory.

“Many Venezuelans are going to look for what to do with their lives” assured political scientist Eduardo Valero. However, the expert recognizes that after years of migration, “there is a greater awareness that life abroad is not so easy,” which is why he believes that the exodus may not be so intense.

The expert assured that These next 72 hours will be decisive for the destiny of Venezuela.