Moment of truth for Elina Svitolina

Elina Svitolina made her way to the top of Indian Wells. The tournament means a lot to her. This is the last “thousander” of the season, a tournament in which more points are played than in any other tournament you can get in October. So, it becomes decisive to determine who gets to the Final tournament in Guadalajara.

In the WTA rankings, Svitolina is holding quite high, but for now. It largely depends on the points of the Final Tournament. Back in 2019, the Ukrainian played in the final against Ashleigh Barty (the tournament was not held in the covid 2020 season). You can get there according to the results of the “championship race” (the official name is the Race to the WTA Finals). And there Elina has little good.

Let me remind you that in the “championship race” points are taken into account only for 16 tournaments during the calendar year. Among them are performances at Grand Slams, Thousanders, and five lower-level tournaments. The eight best tennis players go to the Final. Four have already booked participation in it (Ashley Barty, Arina Sobolenko, Barbora Kreychikova, Pliskova). Elina is currently 10th in this rating.

Officially (excluding Indian Wells), Svitolina earned 2382 points. For several rounds, she has already moved forward, will be taken into account later (minimum 2501 points). This is not enough.

So, who has the best chance of making it into the G8, and what needs to be done to get there? The easiest way is to score a total of 3526 points, this is the qualification level. Not everyone has achieved it. For Elina, for example, this is theoretically still possible. The nearest candidates for the Finals are Iga Sventek (she will have at least 3226 points, and she continues to play in Indian Wells), Maria Saccare (will have 3157 points) and Garbine Muguruza (will become 3151). The latter have already dropped out of the American tournament, but they have a good reserve.

Eighth is now Naomi Osaka. But the Japanese has completed the season, so she will not be in the tournament, even if theoretically she ends up in Guadalajara. If so, there will be a fierce struggle for the last place, and almost a dozen athletes have chances there. Among them is Elina.

The reasons for this situation for Elina, probably, should be sought in the performances of the tennis player herself. But the main thing is that the company of rivals for the last passing place, for the most part, should thank Elina. So why did this happen.

Ninth in the ranking is Ons Jaber. She had 2,685 points and continues to play at Indian Wells. Svitolina once faced Zhaber in Chicago in the quarterfinals this season (October 1). Elina lost that fight (4:6, 2:6), and got 100 points. Ons advanced to the final, where she lost to Muguruza, earning 308 points. “-208” points are not in favor of Elina – the lion’s share of her backlog from Zhaber.

Elisa Martinez has already lost in Indian Wells, earning 2,447 points in the end. She is no longer a competitor in the race for the Ukrainian. However, Elina also showed a certain generosity. In their only match of the year at the very beginning of the season, Svitolina lost to the Belgian in the quarterfinals in Melbourne (3:6, 7:5, 6:10). Martinez won that tournament, “+100” earned points from the Ukrainian, against +470 – from the opponent.

We skip Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Elina did not play with her this year. And the Russian woman herself has already dropped out of Indian Wells, having lost her chances for the Final. The only thing she can do is to take points from Elina’s rivals in another tournament.

Corey Gough is the only one on this list with whom Elina played better. In the second round Australian Open Svitolina won (6:4, 6:3). Corey is now scoring 2,435 points, with a maximum of 3,315. She may enter one or two more tournaments if necessary, but she will be unseeded and will get a heavy draw.

Just below is Jessica Pegula, and here the situation is at its hottest. Svitolina at the beginning of the year defeated the American in Abu Dhabi (6: 4, 6: 3) in the first round. Then Elina went to the quarterfinals, earning 120 points. Revenge was painful. Jessica knocked out Elina from the Australian Open in the 1/16 finals (4:6, 6:3, 3:6). She herself then lost in the next match, but received a better balance of points. Elina earned 240 points for the tournament, Jessica – 430. +70 points in two matches in favor of the American.

Pegula is the first of Elina’s main rivals. It is with her that the Ukrainian will play in the 1/8 finals, this is a head-to-head fight for a chance to reach the Final. Whoever loses will lose their chances completely.

We also skip Emma Raducana, who has the same situation as Pavlyuchenkova. Elina did not play with her, Emma from Indian Wells dropped out and does not qualify for the Final Tournament. The British can only be mentioned in the context of her US Open victory. Elina, in brilliant form and running well on the American Helmet, lost to Leyla Fernandez, who managed everything that day. The Ukrainian had a real chance even for the final – this extra thousand points would not be superfluous now.

The next competitor is Anet Kontaveit. The Ukrainian also did not meet with the Estonian, but you can see where this could happen. In the summer in Eastbourne, Svitolina lost in the second round, Kontaveit reached the final, earning 308 points. Anet is behind, but there are still theoretical chances.

Angelique Kerber played with Elina twice. At first, the Ukrainian won the quarterfinals of Stuttgart (7: 6, 6: 3), then lost to Barty. Positive balance – 185 points against 55. In the next, more rated, Cincinnati was defeated in the second round (5:7, 6:2, 4:6). Kerber took full advantage of this by reaching the semi-finals. The points difference is 60 for Elina, 350 for Anjelik.

What’s next? The tournament in Indian Wells is of fundamental importance. Victory in it actually brings the athlete to the Final. Defeat can leave the game, depending on the round. Of course, if someone like Plishkova or Krejcikova wins the American tournament, the chances will remain, and other tournaments will influence the situation. And here is a very good picture for Svitolina.

In October, there will be four tournaments left to play at the 250 level and above. The only “five hundred” is the Kremlin Cup. Elina never even raised the issue of participating in the current Russian tournaments, it is impossible to imagine a Ukrainian there. But the rivals will arrive.

In Moscow, Zhaber and Kerber were seeded. Ons also manages to play in another week – at the “250-ke” in Courmayeri. In such circumstances, she has a chance to score significantly more points for Elina. What can play into the hands of the Ukrainian is the presence in Moscow of the same Pavlyuchenkova, Saqqara, Muguruza, who can take away points from Zhaber. Another ray of hope is the element of chaos in the person of Simona Halep. The Romanian lost her chances for the Final, but under any circumstances she is a very difficult opponent.

Elina will play in a single tournament. She is seeded number one in Tenerife. Rivals are quite capable of her. However, a maximum of 280 points can be obtained here. Without a successful performance in Indian Wells, this tournament will not have much meaning.

Zhaber claims 470 points from Moscow and 280 from Courmayeri. Kerber – for Moscow points. Kontaveit can still score 280 points in Transylvania. Pegula and Gauf may also sign up for one of these tournaments.

Elina found herself in an all-or-nothing situation. And it’s mostly her own fault. In addition, most of her competitors have earned points in matches against the Ukrainian. In approximately equal circumstances (relegation in the next rounds), Ons Zhaber has a chance to get the last passing place in the Final Tournament. Elina needs to defeat everyone to prove her right to be among the elite this year.