This year’s tournament features former winners Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev. World number two Carlos Alcaraz and world number ten Holger Rune will make their tournament debuts. Alcaraz qualified for last year’s tournament but was forced to withdraw due to injury.
Only four of the eight players who participated in the 2022 tournament have qualified for the 2023 ATP Finals. With the year-end championship draw released on Thursday, let’s take a closer look at the two groups, the two likely semi-finalists and the possible champion:
Green group:
Six-time champion and world number one Novak Djokovic will fight for a record seventh ATP Finals title. He will play in a green group that also includes Jannik Sinner, 2019 champion Stefanos Tsitsipas and debutant Holger Rune.
Djokovic has had a stunning record this season, winning 46 of his 63 matches. Leading Alcaraz by 1,490 points, the Serbian needs just one win to finish the year as world number one for a record eighth time.
Even if he loses – something he hasn’t done since his competitive debut in 2007 – Alcaraz will need to win all five matches to knock the Serbian out of first place.
Djokovic has excellent statistics against two of the three players in his group. The Serb is 3-0 against Sinner, 11-2 against Tsitsipas and 2-2 against Rune. Given the form the Serbian is in (18-0 after losing to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final), we can expect him to enter the semi-finals undefeated.
Sinner, meanwhile, is coming off his career-best season with a 57-14 record and qualified for his first ATP final. He played in 2021, but as a reserve. However, the 22-year-old Italian has poor head-to-head stats against all three players in his group. He lost both matches against Runa, is 2-5 against Tsitsipas and has lost all three matches against Djokovic. He should not qualify for the group.
Tsitsipas is 2-11 against Djokovic and 0-2 against Rune. The Greek is 51-22 this season. His inconsistent form could make it difficult for him to finish in second place.
Rune (43-22) has also lost 22 times this season but has excellent records against Sinner and Tsitsipas. He also beat Djokovic twice in four meetings. Given this, the young Dane can be expected to finish second in the group behind Djokovic.
Predicted semi-finalists: Novak Djokovic and Holger Rune.
Red group:
World number two Carlos Alcaraz leads a tough red group that includes former champions Alexander Zverev (2018, 2021) and Medvedev (2020), as well as Andrey Rublev.
Alcaraz is coming off a superb 2023 campaign with a 63-10 record, winning six titles, including a win at Wimbledon. However, the Spaniard lost twice in his last four matches, including a first-round knockout against Roman Safiullin in Paris, ending his chances of finishing the year as world number one.
However, the Spaniard will have enough motivation to succeed in his first ATP Finals tournament. His biggest challenge should come from the in-form Medvedev, who is 64-16 in 2023 and has won five titles.
Alcaraz and Medvedev are 2-2 in personal meetings, Carlos has won twice in three matches this year. Medvedev, like Alcaraz, also suffered a surprise first-round defeat in Paris and could lose to the Spaniard for the third time this year.
The Spaniard is also likely to face a tough challenge from Zverev, with whom he also has a 3-3 draw. However, Alcaraz won both matches against the German in 2023 and is expected to win the third match as well. Alcaraz is the main contender for first place in the group. He never met Rublev.
Meanwhile, Medvedev and Zverev could be in the running for second place. Medvedev is 10-7 against the two-time ATP Finals champion, who is 53-26 at the end of the season. The Russian is expected to win, which will help him reach the semi-finals.
Medvedev also looks confident against his compatriot Rublev, with a score of 6:2 in personal meetings. The trend will likely continue and Daniel will win again. Meanwhile, Rublev, who is 56-23 in 2023, loses 3-5 to Zverev. The Russian will most likely finish last in the group or ahead of Zverev and will be third.
Predicted semi-finalists: Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev.
Predictions for the semi-finals
Djokovic is expected to face Medvedev in the first semi-final. His record against the Russian is 10-5, including a victory in the US Open final this year. Djokovic seems to be the favorite in this match.
Alcaraz and Rune will likely face each other in the other semifinal. The Spaniard leads 2-1 and won his last meeting in the Wimbledon quarter-finals this year. With a more regular season, Alcaraz has a better chance of emerging victorious.
Final Forecast
Djokovic and Alcaraz are expected to face each other in the final. Based on Djokovic’s current form, only one player can stop him. And that’s just Alcaraz.
That’s a pretty bold prediction, but Alcaraz should avenge his defeat in the Cincinnati final by winning his first ATP Finals title.
Forecast: Alcaraz will beat Djokovic in three sets.
Vyacheslav Gorbachev/Athletistic
Source: Sport
I’m Rose Brown , a journalist and writer with over 10 years of experience in the news industry. I specialize in covering tennis-related news for Athletistic, a leading sports media website. My writing is highly regarded for its quick turnaround and accuracy, as well as my ability to tell compelling stories about the sport.
