Who is Allan Lichtman, the historian who (almost) always agrees with the winner of the American elections.

This Tuesday, November 5, the presidential elections of USA .

The former president Donald Trump goes with JD Vance (Ohio senator) as vice presidential candidate and will seek a second term in the White House, after remaining in office during the 2017-2021 period

For his part, the current vice-president, Kamala Harris goes with Tim Walz (Governor of Minnesota) as his running mate in a candidacy that was defined after President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race on July 21.

Whoever triumphs in the elections will take office in January 2025 and will remain in power for the next four years.

In a context where the investigations reflect a tight scenario, a historian known for his confidence in his electoral predictions shared his analysis on this instance .

It is about Allan Lichtman, who in 40 years has only failed once .

The historian shared his predictions about who will be the winner of the votes and the president of the United States since 1984 .

Man-Licht was correct in the vast majority electoral bodies.

Actually, the only time his predictions failed was in 2000 .

It was the year Republican George W. Bush won against Democrat Al Gore, although the latter obtained a greater number of votes.

Lichtman’s successes have positioned him as one of the most consulted analysts during the presidential elections .

And this year is no exception. The historian shared his predictions for this instance in which former President Trump and current Vice President Harris face each other.

To reach your conclusions, Lichtman used the “13 keys method”. a mechanism that he himself developed in collaboration with a seismologist.

the historian developed the model in collaboration with Russian earthquake specialist Vladimir Keilis-Borok .

They both met at the California Institute of Technology in 1981, the year The Soviet Union specialist made him a striking proposition .

Man-Licht told how they developed the “13 Keys Method” in conversation with BBC .

He reported that Keilis-Borok had dedicated himself to working in a method that would allow us to anticipate when a seismic movement was going to occur .

However, he had greater ambition and He wanted to test whether his model could also be applied to electoral processes .

For that, approached Lichtman .

As the latter recalled in an interview with the aforementioned media, “in the USSR there were no elections, and Since I was an expert on the history of the United States presidency, he suggested that we work together “.

This way, analyzed the results of previous US presidential elections . More precisely, since 1860.

The first time they successfully tested their model was in 1984. when they managed to re-elect now former President Ronald Reagan.

Since then, its mechanism was very effective and only failed in the 2000 elections.

In the words of Lichtman: “The secret of our model lay reconceptualize elections in geophysical terms, establishing two possible scenarios “.

Under this line he explained: “We identified the first as a situation of stability, in which the party in the White House remains” .

“In the second, an earthquake occurs and the ruling party loses it” .

Thus, they identified a series of “keys” which can be crucial in the result of a presidential election.

Although at first they described 30, later the model is 13 years old .

This is why They called it the 13-key method. .

Each key represents a condition. .

Lichtman explained that, When six or more of these events don’t happen, “we have a political earthquake.” .

The latter translates into the ruling party loses the elections .

The specialist shared the details of How each of the 13 keys was applied in the 2024 presidential elections .

Below you will find each of these conditions and, alongside, the explanation of their realization or not in this electoral context .

1. “The party in the White House won seats in the 2022 midterm elections” . Since the Democratic Party lost congressional seats in these elections, This key is wrong and gives Trump the first point .
2. “No rival challenges the ruling party candidate in the primaries” . Although President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race in July, Harris managed to be nominated without another Democratic candidate. Therefore, as The key is true, the problem is for Harris .
3. “The president is seeking re-election” . The condition is not met since Harris is the current vice president and not president. For this reason, the key is wrong and results in a point for Trump .
4. “There is no third party candidate” . Indeed, there is no third-party presidential candidate. The key is true, so that’s a point for Harris .
5. “The economy is not in recession and it will not be in recession during the election year” . Data retrieved by the BBC They say the forecasts rule out the country entering into recession in the short term. Since the key is true, that’s a point for Harris .
6. “The economy grew as much during the presidential term as during the previous two” . Lichtman assured that the country’s gross domestic product per capita increased under the Biden administration as much as it did under Trump’s presidency or Barack Obama’s second. The key is true, so that’s a point for Harris .
7. “The president has made big changes to national politics” . According to Lichtman’s analysis, President Biden has made major domestic policy changes, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the return to the Paris climate agreement. The historian stated that the key is filled, so it’s a point for Harris .
8. “There was no conflict endangering social stability during the presidency” . Lichtman said there have been no social and racial conflicts like those of the 1960s. He stressed that the last four years have been rather stable in this area. The key is true, which results in a point for Harris .
9. “No scandal has hit the White House” . Joe Biden’s son Hunter has starred in controversial episodes. However, the president was not directly involved in the scandals. Lichtman thinks that this key is real, so it’s a point for Harris .
10. “The White House has not suffered a major diplomatic or military failure abroad” . The Biden administration has faced widespread criticism for its failure to end the war in Gaza, a conflict in which the United States supports Israel and in which tensions threaten the possibility of a broader escalation. From the historian’s point of view, this translates into a failure of his foreign policy. As the key is wrong, it’s a point for Trump .
11. “The White House has achieved great military or diplomatic successes abroad” . According to Lichtman, the Biden administration’s efforts to support Ukraine alongside NATO lead to consideration of this key. it’s true, so that’s a point for Harris . Remember that the country chaired by Volodimir Zelensky has resisted the Russian invasion since February 24, 2022.
12. “The ruling party candidate has charisma” . The historian explained to BBC that this classification is very demanding. As an example, he mentioned that only presidents like Franklin D. Roosevelt or Barack Obama would enter. For Lichtman, this key is false in the 2024 context, so it’s a point for Trump .
13. “The candidate who challenges the president has no charisma” . Although Trump is considered very charismatic in his sector, Lichtman’s model considers that the candidate must be a leader attractive to a wide range of voters. As the key is That’s right, the problem is Harris .

The “13 keys method” considers that Six or more of these points must be met for the ruling party to remain .

According to Lichtman’s analysis of the 2024 presidential election, The current vice president collects a total of 9 points, while Trump only obtains 4. .

Therefore, according to its mechanism, presumes Harris will triumph in the November 5 election and become the next president of the United States .